RightDataUSA

Demographics and Elections Commentary tagged with RINO

12/15/2025: Indianalysis [RightDataUSA]

On October 27, one week before the state of California was inevitably going to approve its most recent Democrat gerrymander (it passed by 3,000,000 votes and will cost Republicans 4 or 5 House seats), Indiana Governor Mike Braun called for a special session of his state's legislature in order to retaliate against California to some degree. There's only so much that a relatively small state such as Indiana can do against a behemoth like California, but Braun and Indiana conservatives -- encouraged by President Donald Trump -- prepared to revise the Hoosier State's congressional district map in such a way as to enable Republicans to go from a 7-2 advantage in the Indiana delegation to possibly as much as a 9-0 sweep in a good election year.

Republicans have a solid hold on both houses of the Indiana state legislature, 70-30 in the House and 40-10 in the Senate.

The special session of the legislature did not even commence until December 1, however on November 18 a Twitter user named "johnny maga" posted a new district map which was allegedly proposed by the Indiana House Republicans. The map was accompanied by a statement from House Speaker Todd Huston in which he vowed that Indiana would stand up against the Democrat gerrymanders in California (which by then was a done deal) and Virginia. The Virginia plan is still on the drawing board but, if implemented, could cost Republicans up to 4 more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The proposed Indiana map from November 18 was ludicrous (not that such a thing has ever stopped Democrat map creators) and probably was never seriously considered; it contained two districts which stretched from Lake Michigan to practically the Kentucky border. On December 1 the Indiana House Republicans released a different map -- an eminently reasonable map with compact districts which is pictured above. It would obliterate one of the two Democrat-held House districts (CD-7) and would make the other Rat-held district (CD-1) into one which leans slightly towards the right.

Four days later the Indiana state House approved this new map by a vote of 57-41. On December 11, twenty-one RINOs in the Indiana state Senate became darlings (temporarily) of the liberal media by voting alongside every Democrat in order to sabotage their own party and defeat the new redistricting plan. The final vote was 19 in favor and 31 against.



Background:

Republicans already hold 7 of Indiana's 9 U.S. House seats, and have been in control by that exact margin since the 2012 election. The two districts which they perennially do not hold are CD-1 in the northwestern part of the state, and CD-7 which is most of the city of Indianapolis. The purpose of the new map was to alter these two districts sufficiently to favor Republican candidates in 2026, and to do so without endangering Republican incumbents in the other 7 districts. That is what California Democrats accomplished with their new gerrymander which eliminates 4 or 5 House Republicans while simultaneously protecting half a dozen Democrats who could be vulnerable to a minor "red" wave.


Indiana Congressional District 1 (CD-1):


Indiana Congressional District 1

CD-1 has been in Democrat hands for almost 100 years without interruption; no Republican has ever won a House race there since the district was created in 1932. At that time Lake County (Gary, Hammond) was given its own congressional district, the rapidly growing county having gone from 38,000 residents in 1900 to a population of 261,000 by 1930. Since then, CD-1 has always contained most or all of Lake County, but in recent years Porter County and parts of LaPorte County have been added. Lake County has been losing population since the late 1960's, when Whites began fleeing in droves -- leaving behind a county and congressional district which thus became even more Democrat-oriented.

From 1974 through 2018 no GOP House candidate even broke 40% in CD-1 except for a fluke in 1994 and the time the seat was open in 1982. In 1982 racist Democrat Richard Hatcher was in charge of selecting his party's nominee after the incumbent in CD-1 died following the primary election. Hatcher bypassed better-qualified White candidates and forced his party to accept a black nominee. The Republican still lost by 13% in both 1982 and 1994, and that was as close as the GOP came during that 44-year interval.



CD-1 has become much more competitive recently, and the GOP realizes that even a fairly small shift to the right could result in an unprecedented House win there; the new map for 2026 was going to implement that small shift to the right.

In 2020, frequent (and hopeless) Republican candidate Mark Leyva received slightly over 40% of the House vote against Democrat Frank Mrvan. Donald Trump did even better than Leyva in CD-1 that year, taking a shade under 45%. That may not sound impressive, but it represented a vast improvement in GOP fortunes in northwestern Indiana.

In 2022 Republicans took a serious shot at unseating Mrvan by nominating (and funding) Jennifer-Ruth Green, an Air Force veteran and commercial pilot. Green claimed to be a conservative but foolishly distanced herself from Donald Trump and took liberal positions on some issues; she lost by about 5 points. In 2024 Mrvan was opposed by state Senator Randy Niemeyer, a moderate/establishment Republican. But this time the GOP was not interested in wasting millions of dollars that it couldn't afford, and the party did not support Niemeyer as well as it had Green. Niemeyer lost by 8.5% -- which is still much better than Republicans had historically done in CD-1. Trump in 2024 lost by less than 1% against Kamala Harris in CD-1, a margin of barely 1,000 votes out of 327,000.

Mrvan knows that his House seat is not perfectly safe by any means. He had been running a little scared in 2025, but can breathe easier now that Indiana Senate RINOs have protected him. The district is rated by Charlie Cook as being D+1, but others who rate districts based on a larger dataset have it more like D+4. The proposed district map for 2026 would have made it R+1 according to the limited (and possibly specious) data which is available.

In a good Republican year (in other words, probably not 2026), Republicans would have a decent chance of picking up this House seat even under the current boundaries of the district. Had the new map been passed, they would not have required quite as much of a "good" year to snatch CD-1 from the Democrats for the first time ever.


Indiana Congressional District 7 (CD-7):


Indiana Congressional District 7

This district, which was the old CD-10 until Indiana was reduced to 9 districts in 2002, was only slightly D-leaning in the 1990s. Republicans made a concerted effort in 1996 when Andy Jacobs retired. Jacobs, a Democrat who was first elected in 1964, was known for spending practically zilch on his campaigns yet he still prevailed time after time; Democrats had to spend nearly $600K to hold the seat in '96.

Figuring they had a chance in the 2000s, Republican redistricters moved CD-7 five points to the right, but the GOP never came particularly close to a House win in that decade. They moved it 5 more points to the right for 2012, and it still didn't help. As of that year the district was the southern three-quarters of Marion County (Indianapolis), omitting the northern tier. The Republicans had two reasons for giving up on CD-7 in 2022 (they spent literally nothing there in 2024): they apparently couldn't win CD-7 under any conditions, and the adjacent CD-5 was worsening. So the northern tier of Marion County was moved from CD-5 to CD-7. Now CD-7 is the northern 70% of Marion, omitting the good southern portion.

A Republican nominee in CD-5 no longer has to deal with Marion County at all, and that district has added good rural territory while also losing deteriorating Boone County which is northwest of Indianapolis. Demographic sewage mainly flows north from Indianapolis and is harming the southeastern corner of Boone, and has already polluted formerly rock-solid Hamilton County to a serious extent. Hamilton is the primary county of CD-5 and has been for a while, but now it is only 50-55% Republican -- and dropping -- whereas it was once consistently 70% GOP or even more. Shoring up CD-5 for Republicans was the tradeoff for them forfeiting CD-7 entirely.

The proposed map for 2026 would have nullified that forfeiture. It split Marion County into 4 districts instead of into two as it is now (the good southern portion is in CD-6). The new versions of CD-4 (R+7), CD-6 (R+8), CD-7 (R+7) and CD-9 (R+8) would each have contained some part of Indianapolis, but would have been only nominally influenced by the city, leaving none of those districts bad enough that Andre Carson or any other Democrat could win it in a typical election.

Under the current map, which will likely persist for the remainder of the decade, CD-7 is rated as D+19. Which means that no Republican has even the slightest chance of winning it. Carson has approached 70% of the vote in the last two elections, and Democrat presidential candidates achieve similar figures; Trump got 28% in CD-7 in 2024.



2025 Redistricting Attempt:

As mentioned above, the new map which would have resulted in a minimum of +1 House seat for Republicans was rejected by the Indiana state Senate by a vote of 19-31. Twenty-one RINOs joined all 10 Democrats in saving one or perhaps two Democrat seats in Congress. Here is some more information about the 21 traitors, 10 of whom are up for re-election in 2026; the other 11 will not have to face the voters again until 2028.

Name District PVI First
Elected
Up
Dan Dernulc1D+120222026
Ed Charbonneau5R+920072028
Rick Niemeyer6R+1220142026
Brian Buchanan7R+1920182028
Mike Bohacek8R+1120162028
Ryan Mishler9R+1720042028
Linda Rogers11R+620182026
Blake Doriot12R+1120162028
Sue Glick13R+2020102028
Travis Holdman19R+1520082026
Jim Buck21R+1220082026
Spencer Deery23R+920222026
Brett Clark24R+1320242028
Michael Crider28R+1420122028
Kyle Walker31R+420202026
Rodric Bray37R+2320122028
Greg Goode38R+620232026
Eric Bassler39R+1820142026
Greg Walker41R+1620062026
Jean Leising42R+2419882028
Vaneta Becker50R+720052028

Probably not coincidentally, the vast majority of the GOP quislings occupy Senate seats which are in the vicinity of the two U.S. House districts that could have flipped from D to R had these quislings' votes not put an end to that possibility. Of the 21, only two (Dernulc, K. Walker) represent Senate districts which could be described as marginal in a normal election year; the other 19 are varying degrees of safe for the GOP nominee.

Safe in a general election, that is. These 21 cowards may face some highly motivated and well-funded primary opponents next time around. Incumbent liberal Republicans normally have significant advantages in fundraising during primary elections; we'll have to wait and see if any viable opponents actually materialize. President Trump stated, before the vote took place, "Why would a REAL Republican vote against this when the Dems have been [gerrymandering] for years??? If they stupidly say no, vote them out of Office -- They are not worthy -- And I will be there to help!"



Despite all that, the 21 virtuous cowards are being generally defiant about their surrender. As is customary with RINOs, they cower like whipped pups in the face of the media and other Democrats, and save what little courage they possess to use only when opposing true conservatives in their own party. On December 11 several of them raced to the media to issue statements defending their backstabbing of Republicans nationwide:
  • Doddering old RINO stooge Senator Jean Leising, proudly defending her pro-Democrat vote: "Mid-cycle congressional redistricting in Indiana failed on the Senate floor today with my 'no' vote. I believe it is time to move on to our normal session schedule and focus on issues affecting our local communities, like addressing the availability of affordable [Democrat buzzword alert!] rural health care and good jobs so Indiana residents can provide for their families."

  • Senator Blake Doriot, an apparent victim of astroturfed pressure: "I heard from friends, neighbors and people I had never met before who overwhelmingly stated they were not in support of this and were concerned that the proposed changes would only hurt our community. My vote reflected those concerns, and I stand by my decision to vote against this bill to support those who rely on me to represent them."

  • Senate Majority Leader Rod Bray, talking out both sides of his mouth at the same time: "We support President Trump, and we are with him on many issues."

    (But not this one.)

    Also from Bray: "We want to see a Republican majority in congress at the midterms. The issue before us today was how to get there, and many of my caucus members don't think redrawing our Congressional map mid-cycle is a guaranteed way for Indiana -- or our country -- to achieve that outcome."

    (Surrendering surely is the "guaranteed way" to accomplish the opposite outcome, though.)

  • Another RI-No voter, Senator Spencer Deery, speaking gibberish: "Some say we should gerrymander because Democrats have been doing it for years and it's time for Republicans to catch up. That would be a sensible question to ask four years ago or four years in the future."

  • Senator Linda Rogers, after being astroturfed: "Over the last few months, I have heard from thousands of constituents who were overwhelmingly opposed. When I chose to run for Senate District 11, I promised to serve and advocate for those in our local community, and I believe I upheld that promise today."

"Thousands". "Overwhelmingly".

Sure.

Several of these folks are going to hear from thousands of voters in next year's primary election, and will hopefully be overwhelmingly rebuked at the polls. Bray, Doriot and Leising are exempt, what with not being up for re-election until 2028; Bray may still receive some punishment after 2026 -- he may find himself as "Minority Leader" or find that his majority is greatly reduced.



Some Twitter account posted this on the day of the Indiana vote:


Yes it's just an unproven conspiracy theory, but it fits with the general idiocy of the Stupid Party. Not only did Indiana Republicans surrender when they were winning, but it figures they would do so under terms which are totally unfavorable -- allowing Democrats to retain two seats in the Hoosier State while maybe retaining one GOP seat in Maryland.


Maryland 2024 House results: 1 R, 7 D

The Democrat president of the Maryland state Senate had already announced that gerrymandering would not be on the agenda during the special session which has been called for mid-December, despite pressure from Maryland Governor Barack Obama 2.0 (a clean and articulate empty suit, who for years has been carefully groomed in preparation for achieving high political office). Additionally, a Democrat gerrymandering expert has warned that an attempt to create an 8-0 sweep of the Maryland congressional delegation would likely not withstand a court challenge, assuming the sleepy, complacent GOP would choose to file a challenge.



Gerrymandering War scorecard:

Here is how things currently stand:


Map source: Dave's Redistricting

In North Carolina, a panel of federal judges dismissed Democrat claims of "racism" and refused to order the injunction which the professional racists sought. This presumably means that the new congressional district map drawn by the Republican legislature will be used for the 2026 midterms. Republicans currently hold a 10-4 advantage in the North Carolina delegation, the new map makes only minor changes, and those changes primarily affect only two districts (CD-1 and CD-3). CD-1, which is held at this time by Democrat Don Davis, is being changed from a PVI of D+1 to perhaps R+3. This could be enough to dislodge Davis, assuming 2026 isn't a "blue" wave of any kind. The adjacent CD-3 moves from R+8 to R+3. As we have noted many times, most of the 10 GOP-held districts are marginal to some degree, and in a bad election year we could see a real bloodbath in the Tarheel State. Having an uninspiring simp like Michael Whatley lose big to Roy Cooper in the Senate race is not going to help matters down the ballot.


Map source: Dave's Redistricting

In extremely Republican Utah, a RINO judge has sided with Democrats and is forcing the state to discard the district map which was used in 2022 and 2024 (which resulted in the GOP winning all 4 House seats). Initially, she was expected to select a new map which would have two super-safe Republican districts and two iffy ones, both of which tilted a little to the right. Instead she chose a map which would guarantee one Democrat pickup. Therefore, at best, the supposed GOP win in North Carolina is negated by the certain loss in Utah.


Map source: Dave's Redistricting

On December 4, the U.S. Supreme Court in a 6-3 decision granted an "emergency stay" which allows the new Republican-drawn map in Texas to be used in 2026 while Democrat lawsuits continue indefinitely. As a result of the stay, Republicans expect to pick up as many as 5 U.S. House seats which are currently held by Democrats. The affected districts are:

  • CD-9, which will be R+3 (was D+26 on behalf of deranged racist Al Green, who has fled to CD-18)
  • CD-28, D+3 (was D+4)
  • CD-32, R+6 (was D+14)
  • CD-34, even (was D+8)
  • CD-35, R+2 (was D+19)



Map source: Dave's Redistricting

California voters in November passed Proposition 50, which allows the state to proceed with its hyper-partisan gerrymander which is designed to eliminate 5 Republicans from the California delegation in the U.S. House. Using the same tactic which Democrats have relied on (with much success) over the past 30+ years, the U.S. Department of Justice has joined California Republicans who are suing California on the basis that the new map mandates racially-gerrymandered districts, which is illegal. The motion to intervene is still pending before a U.S. District Court in California. Don't hold your breath in anticipation of any relief here. The case was scheduled to be heard on December 15. Another Republican lawsuit has already been dismissed for the good, old "lack of standing" reason that liberal judges often use against Republicans who have a good case (remember 2020?).


Map source: Dave's Redistricting

There will be a new congressional district map in Ohio for 2026, but it is not substantially different from the map which was used in 2022 and 2024. A revised map was required by state law because the previous one was passed without bipartisan support and was therefore only permitted to be used twice. The 2026 map does have bipartisan support, which ought to tell you something about how effective it will be for Republicans in 2026 and beyond. The GOP currently holds 10 of the 15 U.S. House seats in Ohio, but three Democrat-held districts (CD-1, CD-9, CD-13) are shaky at best. Yet Republicans failed to capture any of the three in 2022 or 2024. They will give it another try in 2026 under district boundaries which have received only subtle alterations from those which existed in the past two elections. CD-1 and CD-9 are moved imperceptibly to the right, while CD-13 goes the opposite direction in a similarly negligible way. There are some shaky GOP-held districts too, so if 2026 goes sour there could be a few House results in Ohio which would surprise the unaware.


Map source: Dave's Redistricting

The redistricting effects of Texas (R) and California (D) will cancel each other out, or come close to doing so; North Carolina (R) and Utah (D) also may be a net-zero. Ohio will likely end up with a 10-5 GOP advantage, no change from the current situation. Missouri's revised 5th Congressional District is going to be about R+8, an easy GOP pickup from the existing Democrat in CD-5. That makes the current aggregate redistricting score probably +1 for the GOP in 2026, with some variation depending on the overall demeanor of the election. If there is some "blue" wave, which should be greatly expected as things stand now, then any minor redistricting advantage accruing to the Republicans would be swamped by a general swing to the left overall.

Republican-controlled Kansas was going to redistrict before the 2026 midterms but they are pulling an "Indiana" and chickening out for the same reason as Indiana -- a lack of RINO support for picking up a House seat from a Democrat. Democrats are going to gain at least two seats in Virginia when that gerrymander is put into place, and large Rat-infested states such as New York and Illinois are looking to screw Republicans there even harder than they already have. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is looking to have his state mimic Texas; he believes a new map could oust 5 Democrats from the Florida delegation and make it 25-3 in favor of the GOP. That sounds extremely unlikely, but a gain of even one or two seats would be helpful.


A final word:

And then there's the whole bullshit idea of "Republican gerrymandering very bad", "Democrat 'response' merely self-defense". Democrats for years have relied on judicial mid-decade redistricting rather than doing it legislatively. What liberal judges have done frequently on behalf of Democrats is far worse than anything President Trump and the GOP are trying here, but of course the media spin is that what is happening now is "unprecedented".

Indiana illustrates the risk involved with trying to do things the right way; it can be difficult to get a sufficient number of RINO legislators to overcome their fears and vote properly on some redistricting plan. However ONE solitary black-robed liberal tyrant can singlehandedly mandate not only that a Republican map be scrapped -- normally by decreeing it to be "racist", with no pertinent evidence required -- but that it be replaced with a map which is guaranteed to cause a specific outcome which is desired by Democrats.

Tags:

Indiana U.S. House Surrender RINOs


9/12/2023: [South Carolina] House Republican Nancy Mace Says 'We Will Lose Next Year' If MAGA Members Bully Moderates [Mediate]


Photo credit: The Hill

Liberal GOP crybully is welcomed onto a low-rated ultra-liberal TV network in order to bash conservatives. Any "news" story pertaining to a Republican politician which contains "During an appearance on CNN..." tells you all you need to know about that politician's credibility.

Patriotic American voters who would like to see the GOP in Congress stand for something (did you know that Republicans actually control the House of Representatives?), lament the defeatist attitude and cowardly legislative inaction by squishes such as Kevin McCarthy -- and Nancy Mace. Conservative voters believe, rightly, that after 2024 the GOP is likely to lose control of the House for those reasons.

That is very likely to happen as things stand now. Demoralized conservative voters notwithstanding, another reason for the impending loss is that Democrats are preparing to pick up several seats from the effects of belated redistricting which (in all cases except North Carolina, if redistricting there ever happens) will favor Democrats across the board.

Interestingly, one belated redistricting target of Democrat racists is.... the South Carolina district which Nancy Mace represents. Democrats decided that South Carolina's delegation In Washington ain't gots enough "people of color" (Tim Scott doesn't count since he's a Republican) and specifically they have targeted Mace's CD-1, which is Charleston and vicinity, for "reparations".

The Democrat/NAACP lawsuit is now at the Supreme Court level after some liberal federal judges took the racists' side, and it has already been proven that the GOP absolutely can NOT count on that so-called "Republican" Supreme Court to do the right thing in these cases.

Won't it be funny when a stooge like Nancy Mace gets ousted by racist liberals to whom she is closer ideologically than she is to conservatives? It's not like the GOP can afford to lose this House district -- or any district -- due to the effects of Democrat racism and a compliant Court, though something about irony being delicious regarding this turn of events comes to mind.


However:

If Mace's district is redrawn and overrun by the Charleston ghetto, do not be surprised if she jumps on her broomstick and flies to a different district (perhaps CD-7) and tries to oust the GOP incumbent there. She'll have 100% support from the GOPe, just like she did in 2022 when they helped her to fight against a solid conservative in the primary. The establishment may claim publicly that it will be neutral in a matchup of incumbents, but you can count on there not being much neutrality going on behind the scenes.

CD-7 is represented by freshman Republican Russell Fry who prevailed against Trump-hating liberal incumbent Tom Rice in the 2022 primary. Oh how the GOPe must despise Fry, and would love to save Mace and dump him simultaneously. It's worth noting that Mace already has at least 4 times the amount of cash for the 2024 election as Fry does. If they battle each other, one of those two will get a lot more $$$$ from the GOPe. It won't be Fry.

Tags:

Nancy Mace South Carolina RINO U.S. House


7/18/2023: GOP Uniparty Senators Threaten to Leave and Become Democrats [Conservative Treehouse]


Photo credit: The Hill

For a suddenly relevant blast from the not-too-distant past, here's an excerpt from our very own "Final 2022 election predictions" posted last November 7th:

If partisan control hangs in the balance, i.e. if Republicans end up with a 51-49 majority, the filthy whore from Alaska (who will win re-election easily), will sell herself to the highest bidder like all filthy whores do; that high bidder will be the Democrats. A la Judas Jim Jeffords 20 years ago, Murkowski will switch sides and give the Democrats control.

With the "red wave" petering out completely, there was no need for the dessicated crone from Alaska to pull a Jeffords at that time. However it appears that Murkowski along with other spineless weasels (Cornyn, Thune, Romney, etc.) now fear that the GOP might somehow take Senate control following the 2024 elections, and as always they would greatly prefer not to be in power -- at least not on the same side as those smelly conservatives, and especially not if taking control in January of 2025 is due to the fact that 1 or 2 more actual conservatives are elected next November. So Murkowski is hinting that she will bolt, and it's quite possibly not just a bluff.

She doesn't have to face the voters again until 2028, and Rigged Choice Voting in Alaska practically ensures her re-election just as it did in 2022.

The Democrats don't need to buy off this whore with their endless supply of geld -- she's already a millionaire -- but through their control of the media they can make her the greatest American hero since St. George Floyd; why, she would be single-handedly saving Democracy!!! They don't need to appeal to her greed; they can simply appeal to her gigantic ego and lust for power (or at least relevance).

Regarding the 2024 Senate elections, the puppetmasters have little to fear in West Virginia where a moderate Republican will replace an allegedly moderate Democrat. But if the uniparty establishment loses control of the primary election in places like Montana and Ohio, leading to the nomination of right-of-center candidates like Rosendale and Moreno, and then loses control of the general election and those guys somehow get past all the obstacles in their path (vote fraud, overwhelming funding disadvantages) then they figure that spells DISASTER.

For the establishment.

Of course that's not true at all, with Mitch McConnell or one of his Bitches becoming Majority Leader and being as vigorous, forceful and effective a "leader" as Frank Luntz's boy toy currently is in the House.

Speaking of Kevin McCarthy, the current odds heavily favor him handing over the Speaker's gavel to the racist Democrat election-denier from Brooklyn when the next Congress convenes in 2025, so it would be nice to have the GOP control the Senate. It would be even nicer for them to actually accomplish something with that control, but probably the most we could expect is preventing President Biden, President Harris or President Newsom from being able to pack the Supreme Court. Maybe.

Tags:

Senate RINO Lisa Murkowski Mitt Romney John Cornyn Judas Jim Jeffords


4/26/2023: [West Virginia] Joe Manchin is a dunce [Hot Air]


Photo credit: AP Photo/Susan Walsh

Actually, that's one thing he's not. The article claims that Manchin is regretting his high-profile vote which singlehandedly provided the margin for passage of the Democrats' ludicrously-named "Inflation Reduction Act" last August. But he knew exactly what he was doing at the time, and only now that the 2024 campaign season is beginning to get underway is Manchin feeling a little heat at home in West Virginia. He pretends to be a thorn in the side of his party, but when the chips are down he always comes through for the leftists.

Republicans are lining up to take Manchin on, the first one was solidly conservative representative Alex Mooney. The liberal GOP establishment therefore went into a panic, but calmed themselves down by successfully recruiting term-limited Democrat-turned-Republican Governor Jim Justice to oppose Mooney in the primary.

The RINOs and their big $$$$ donors are now able to run away from Mooney and toward Justice. Donald Trump should endorse Mooney to give Mooney's campaign some traction, but apparently that's too much of a risk to the all-important Trump Winning Percentage since Mooney is unlikely to survive the primary.

Aside from his conservatism, the RINOs' problem with Mooney is that he wasn't born in some rural hovel in the geographical center of West Virginia and therefore is doomed to always be considered an outsider like Patrick Morrissey was painted as when he ran against Manchin and lost -- basically for that reason alone -- in 2018. Morrissey has since been elected to statewide office in WV, and is running for Governor in '24 and will probably win, so the voters seem to have forgiven him for the sin of being born elsewhere. Will the voters also forgive Mooney? We very likely won't get to find out this year.

The fear is that Manchin and the media would use the same playbook against Mooney that they did against Morrissey. They also fear that Mooney is "unelectable" even in this bluest of blue states because they feel (and wish, and try their best to ensure) that all conservatives are unelectable.

It's a moot point because no way the establishment lets Mooney win the GOP primary if Justice is in the race, and maybe even if he isn't. Given that Justice will be the nominee, at this time we feel he has about a 60-40 chance of defeating Manchin. Manchin is as slimy as they come, but West Virginia voters have been fooled by him in the past and may be again in the future. Also Manchin is a good campaigner -- good enough, anyway -- and most Republicans are not. Justice won in 2016 (as a Democrat, prior to switching parties) by "only" 7 points, but the next truly tough election campaign he faces will be his first one.

If something from way out of left field happens and Mooney is the nominee, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see the state's other Senator (alleged Republican Shelley Capito) all but endorse Manchin by talking about how delighted she's been to serve with him, how wonderfully "bipartisan" he is, etc. Other RINOs will also pull out the knives and aim for Mooney's back; Mitch McConnell will see to it that Mooney is starved for funds. But as stated above, that scenario is very likely something we won't have to worry about.

Tags:

Phony "moderate" Joe Manchin West Virginia 2024 Alex Mooney Conservative Jim Justice RINO


8/12/2022: [Florida] America First Poll Shows Republican KW Miller With Double-Digit Lead Over RINO Carlos Gimenez In Florida's 28th District Primary Race [PR Newswire]


Photo credit: KW Miller for Congress

According to Ballotpedia, Trump has endorsed the RINO incumbent instead of the conservative challenger. This poll, not that it's particularly believable, might cause that endorsement to change. Not only is Gimenez a RINO who supports amnesty for illegal aliens, gun-grabbing and other liberal causes, he supported the J6 Kangaroo Kourt Kommittee even after Trump endorsed him in 2020.

Some people insist that Trump's endorsements of guaranteed-to-win-anyway Republican House incumbents have nothing to do with padding his winning percentage, but instead is a "6D Chess" maneuver to inspire loyalty from politicians who will always remember how Trump supported them (even when they didn't need it), and they will therefore support him in return.

Oh really? Here is a list of the other 15 House Republicans who Trump endorsed in 2020 and who then backstabbed him by voting for the Pelosi-Cheney-Kinzinger J6 lynch mob: Johnson (SD), Bice (OK), Moore (UT), Guest (MS), Bentz (OR), Simpson (ID), Fortenberry (NE), Newhouse (WA), Bacon (NE), Miller-Meeks (IA), Jacobs (NY), Gonzales (TX), Joyce (OH), Salazar (FL), Curtis (UT).

How's that for "loyalty", eh?

Fortenberry was ousted for some alleged technical violation that Democrats probably get away with every day, Jacobs supposedly ran away because some nutzoid leftist killed some people in Buffalo (near his district), and all of the others so far have safely won their primaries in 2022 despite their apostasy. There were 19 other Republicans who voted to persecute Trump, but at least he was smart enough not to have endorsed them previously.

8/24/2022 update: Miller lost by over 60 points. Believe lunatic polls at your own risk.

Tags:

U.S. House Florida 2022 Backstabbing RINOs Lunatic poll


8/9/2022: [Wyoming] Data: Liz Cheney's Plan to Win GOP Primary with Democrat Votes Is Failing [Breitbart]


Photo credit: pbs.com

From the article: "Wyoming law states that voters must be affiliated with a particular party to vote in that party's primary election - but voters can change their party registration on primary Election Day or any time leading up to it. In other words, it is essentially an open primary."

Wyoming is not unique in this area, though other states with ostensibly "closed" primaries may have different deadlines for party-switching. The folks who concern themselves with "Open or closed primary??!11??" or "ALL PRIMARIES SHOULD BE CLOAZED!!" may as well finally begin to understand that the bolded part above applies to every state now. There is effectively no such thing as a closed primary anymore, anywhere.

In this particular case, the lack of a truly closed primary isn't going to save Cheney's RINO ass no matter how much she goes around desperately begging for the votes of liberals of both parties. In other states however, Democrat infiltration of Republican primaries has had significant effects even if those effects did not always alter the outcome.

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U.S. House Wyoming 2022 Liz Cheney Dead RINO J6 Kangaroo Kourt Klown


8/1/2022: [Michigan] Moderate GOP Rep. Peter Meijer Trashes Dems for Bankrolling His MAGA Foe in Scathing Op-Ed: Selling Out 'Any Pretense of Principle' [MSN]

The article claims that "Democrats have been financially backing MAGA GOP candidates this primary cycle in order to have a better shot at beating them ahead of an expected Republican wave in November." In this case, that assertion smells like bullshit. As of July 13 Gibbs had less than $150,000 cash on hand and Meijer had about 6x as much. Those must be some pretty stingy Democrat contributors.

Two facts:

1. If (more likely when) Gibbs defeats Meijer on Tuesday, he really better count on Democrats for further funding because the petulant spiteful RNC sure ain't gonna come across. They would much rather lose this seat than support a conservative who just slaughtered one of their pet RINOs.

2. This district was moved a few notches to the left in redistricting so now any Republican starts off as the underdog in a general election. Especially when the ultra-liberal Democrat in the race has all the money in the world to campaign with and doesn't even have to spend a dime of it in the primary because she's unopposed.

The district is not so far left that a Republican can't possibly win, and money alone doesn't always determine the outcome of a race, but when the imbalance is as massive as this one will be it's going to take a substantial blue wave to pull off the upset here.

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U.S. House Michigan 2022 Silver-spoon RINO Peter Meijer Going down


7/27/2022: [Michigan] GOP's Meijer voted to impeach Trump. Now Democrats are helping his Trump-backed GOP primary opponent [Washington Post]

Even better, true conservatives are supporting Gibbs too. The liberals and RINOs are both hoping that Gibbs will lose in November against the ultra-liberal and very well-funded Rat. The redistricting process also worked against Republicans here, as this district which encompasses the rapidly-deteriorating Grand Rapids area was shifted several points to the left and now favors Democrats.

Even so, at least one poll shows that Gibbs would fare much better than the spoiled little rich boy who voted for impeachment. However this will take money, and Gibbs doesn't have a family fortune to fall back on, nor can he count on funding from big-$$$$ RINO GOP donors after he wins the primary next week.

Gibbs is going to be outspent heavily while his opponent gets 24/7 free support from the media. Despite all that, he can and will win if RINO voters in his district are able to suppress their disgust at one of their own kind losing his primary. We're told by the GOP establishment (when it suits them) that party unity in general elections is of paramount importance. Let's see how well they prove it in this case.

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U.S. House Michigan 2022 RINO backstabber Loser