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Demographics and Elections Commentary tagged with Alaska

11/20/2025: Senate Prospects For 2026: Part Two, Voting Schemes and Pipe Dreams [RightDataUSA]

We've already covered the eight U.S. Senate seats which have the greatest probability of changing hands in 2026. The list includes 3 seats currently held by Democrats and 5 which have GOP incumbents. Most of the other 27 Senate seats which will have elections next year appear to be perfectly safe for the party which holds them. A few others fall just short of "perfectly safe".

Perfectly safe (or close to it) Senate seats:

  • Republican: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (special), Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming

  • Democrat: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia

A couple of states which are neither likely to flip nor quite 100% safe are Nebraska and Minnesota. We will also cover a few other states below -- Louisiana because of its "new" voting scheme which finally abandons the jungle primary; Alaska because it may be a close race and because of its utilization of the Rigged Choice Voting scheme which could determine the Senate winner there; also Kentucky because that's on the Democrat pipe dream list along with Alaska and Nebraska. Kentucky has one Democrat who can win statewide and he's already occupied with being a figurehead Governor who covets higher office someday -- but not the Senate, at least not in 2026.


Louisiana gubernatorial jungle primary, 1987

Louisiana:

This Senate seat is highly unlikely to slip away from the GOP next year, but it may be an interesting race.

As of 2026 Louisiana is abandoning its "jungle" primary system which was instituted in 1975 by Democrat Governor (and eventual convicted felon) Eddie Edwards. Louisiana is returning to single-party closed primaries, and that sounds like a good thing.

But it probably isn't.

In 1975 Republicans accounted for less than 10% of the Louisiana electorate and were outnumbered by as many as 2,000,000 Democrats statewide. From the end of Radical Reconstruction, Republicans were never anything close to being a viable factor in Pelican State elections. The GOP had not elected a Governor since 1876 and would never elect a Senator prior to the 21st century. Until the 1960's, Republicans were unheard of in the congressional delegation or in the state legislature. In these respects, Louisiana was no different from many other Deep South states.

By 1975 however, Edwards may have noticed that the GOP (though still largely nascent) was beginning to grow, and the Democrat Governor desired to rig the system to favor his party. In a jungle primary, all candidates regardless of party run together on the same ballot. The top two finishers -- also regardless of party -- advance to the general election which is essentially a runoff. A wrinkle which was added in Louisiana is that if any candidate achieves a majority of the vote in the jungle primary, then that candidate is declared the winner of the race and there is no general election for that office. An example of how this worked is the 2020 U.S. Senate election, in which RINO Bill Cassidy was re-elected.

In the jungle primary which took place on November 3, 2020, Cassidy faced 14 challengers (5 Democrats, 1 Republican, 1 Libertarian, 7 independents), exactly zero of which posed a serious threat -- all 5 Democrats combined added up to only 36% and the one other Republican contender barely registered a pulse. Cassidy won with 59.3% of the vote. Had his percentage not exceeded the magic number of 50, he would have been forced into a runoff with the second-place finisher.


Photo of inmate No. 03128-095 from wwltv.com

What really triggered Edwards was the February, 1972 gubernatorial race, in which he first won the Democrat primary against over a dozen other candidates (but did not even get 25% of the vote) and then narrowly prevailed in a grueling runoff against Bennett Johnston and then had to face Republican David Treen in the general which turned out much closer than expected. Treen had cruised easily through the GOP primary and did not need to endure any runoff. So why, Edwards asked, should the vastly outnumbered Republican party be guaranteed a spot on a general election ballot like in every other state, while Democrats had to face as many as two bruising contests just to get to that same spot?

The answer to that question, beginning in 1977, was to make Republicans in Louisiana into an effectively-disenfranchised minority group. Until the 1990's, the majority of statewide general elections in Louisiana were Democrat against Democrat. Furthermore, when no general election was needed because someone got over 50% in the jungle primary, that "someone" was always a Democrat.

This contrivance worked well for Louisiana Democrats for a long time. But Treen was elected Governor in a 1979 upset and by the 1980's the GOP at least fielded a candidate in most elections. Although after Treen won it was 16 years before another Republican was elected Governor, and it wasn't until 2004 that Republicans elected their first U.S. Senator from Louisiana. Democrats continued to dominate other statewide offices as well.



As of 2004 the tide had turned, and Democrats (and liberal Republicans) knew it. Then came the mass exodus of New Orleans Democrats as the result of Hurricane Katrina in 2005; New Orleans was already in population decline but the hurricane momentarily accelerated the process. From that point forward it has been Democrats who almost always find themselves on the outside in a general election, not simply because New Orleans temporarily lost about 100,000 potential voters, but because the general preference of Louisiana voters has done a 180-degree turn away from Democrats and towards Republicans. Since 2007 only Dirty Mary Landrieu in 2008 and John Bel Edwards (fluke wins in 2015 and 2019) have been able to prevail statewide as Democrats in Louisiana.

Liberal Republicans like Bill Cassidy have (along with Democrats) lately decried the jungle primary, and in 2024 the state legislature passed a bill which reverts to closed, single-party primaries for elections for federal offices effective as of 2026; elections for state and local office in Louisiana will continue with the jungle primary. The new scheme is a "win" for liberals of both parties: Democrats get a guaranteed spot on a general election ballot; RINOs no longer need to deal with Democrats taking votes from them in a primary, and thus stand a better chance against real Republicans.

In a supposedly "closed" GOP primary, Cassidy will receive a higher percentage of votes than he would in a jungle. He will be the winner if several conservative candidates split the right-wing vote while Cassidy has all of the left-wing votes for himself. Most likely, however, Cassidy will still need to survive a primary runoff. That won't be as difficult as it may sound. One very important provision of the new law which eliminated the jungle primary is that independent voters -- and there are plenty of those in Louisiana (nearly 30%) -- can cast a ballot in whichever primary they choose. Take a bunch of "moderate" independents, add in some Democrat voters who switch and become Republicans temporarily, and RINOs are suddenly far less endangered than they were before. If Cassidy's fate was decided only by true Republicans, it wouldn't be pleasant for him.



Cassidy's #1 opponent at the moment is state Treasurer John Fleming, a 74-year-old Republican. Democrats have nobody worth mentioning. Fleming served 4 terms in the U.S. House from the 4th District from 2009-2016; the guy who replaced Fleming in that district in 2016 is now the Speaker of the House. Fleming is a very solid conservative, and if other conservatives stay out of the May, 2026 Senate primary, Fleming has an excellent chance to win. November would be a formality. But the primary will not be so simple, and that works to the advantage of RINO incumbent Cassidy because the non-RINO primary vote will be fractured. Other prominent candidates include first-term state Senator Blake Miguez, who is a moderate-conservative; and St. Tammany Parish councilwoman Kathy Seiden, who is a young, attractive Christian conservative.


Photo credit: wwltv.com

Cassidy has a major cash advantage, Miguez and Fleming are building their war chests, and Seiden has only recently thrown her hat into the ring. Whoever wins the GOP primary will be Louisiana's next U.S. Senator. Miguez, though more of a centrist, will still take more votes from Fleming and Seiden than he will from Cassidy. Best case scenario is that at least one of the two actual conservatives makes the runoff. With one Democrat now guaranteed to be on the general election ballot (thanks again, Louisiana RINOs) billionaire ActBlue contributors may go all-out to try to steal this seat, but this is one state where it is very unlikely that they will succeed.



Alaska:


Democrats have nobody yet for this race in what people falsely assume is a Republican state; the GOP has only 24% of voter registrations in Alaska while 59% are registered independents. But the Democrats believe (and left-wing polls back them up) that fake-moderate ex-congresswoman Mary Peltola would be a formidable opponent against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Sullivan, an actual moderate, was first elected to the Senate in 2014 when he defeated incumbent Democrat Mark Begich and then was re-elected in 2020 by an unimpressive margin over big-spending liberal Al Gross.

An obscure former state legislator from the outback, Peltola entered the spotlight in August, 2022 when she reaped the full benefit of Alaska's Rigged Choice Voting (RCV) election system and won the House seat of the departed Don Young by taking 39.7% of the vote in a special election. Sarah Palin's entry into that race split the GOP vote (which totaled 58.7%), and after RCV worked its black magic Peltola was declared the winner. She won again in November against the same two GOP combatants. Republicans finally got smart in 2024 and stopped the internal warfare, with Nick Begich winning the House seat he had been denied twice previously. Democrats desperately want Peltola to run for something in 2026, whether it be Governor, Senator or House, because no other Democrat seems to be remotely viable. Alaska's filing deadline isn't until June, so the "Peltola Watch" may go on for some time.

Peltola may have a greater chance at becoming Governor rather than Senator because no Republican (so far) is stepping up to plausibly challenge Sullivan; the GOP vote will not be split, and Sullivan's squishiness will appeal to so-called independents who might otherwise vote for a Democrat. However the Governor race is wide-open and numerous Republicans will be splitting the vote in the jungle primary and probably in the general election too. If Peltola gets into that race, other Rats will flee. The over-abundance of Republican wannabes gives Democrats and Peltola the perfect opportunity to use Rigged Choice Voting to their advantage again, a la 2022.

Even if Sullivan wins another Senate term in 2026, Alaska still might hand Senate control to the Democrats. As we first predicted over 3 years ago, if Senate control hangs in the balance, uber-RINO Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski will almost certainly switch parties -- either ending her charade and becoming a Democrat, or going the Independent route and caucusing with the Dems -- and hand the Senate over to the Rats. The GOP majority hasn't been thin enough yet for this grandstanding attention whore to make any difference in that manner, but after 2026 it very well might be. Or Republicans may lose outright, and Murkowski might switch just to be on the winning team and get some better committee assignments in the last two years of her final term (before voters kick her to the curb in 2028 -- hopefully).

Murkowski previewed her intentions here, a few months ago.



Kentucky:


Photo credit: Lexington Herald Leader

The Bluegrass State is wide open due to the long-overdue retirement of Mitch McConnell. The best-known candidates in the Republican primary are moderate congressman Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Barr has represented the Lexington-area district in Congress since 2013 and he's turned what was once a marginal House seat into a rather safe one which Democrats no longer seriously go for in most elections; they are putting it back on their radar in 2026, however. Cameron, elected as A.G. in 2019, was seen by some on the right as insufficiently tough on Democrat crimes while in office, and his bid to move up to Governor ended dismally when he was totally outclassed (and vastly outspent) in 2023. There is also businessman Nate Morris running on the GOP side, and he is definitely the most conservative option of the three. Barr is currently the leader in the fundraising portion of the race.

Democrats seem to be pinning their hopes on one of two female statewide failures:

  • Amy McGrath, who once wasted $8 million running against Barr in the 6th District and couldn't even win in hyper-Democrat 2018. The national party again spared no expense in 2020, spending nearly $100 million on McGrath as she failed to defeat the unpopular McConnell for the Senate. She won 3 counties. McGrath's 2026 campaign is built around "I hate Donald Trump, just like you do!" and nothing else aside from wrapping herself in the flag and posing as a patriot because she once was in the military. Democrats often try that approach; it seldom works outside of "blue" states (where that sort of thing isn't necessary and is probably counterproductive).

  • State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson, who represents a Louisville ghetto district. Stevenson doesn't appear to have much of a campaign organization yet. Stevenson ran for Attorney General in 2023 and lost by 16 points even as Empty Suit Andy Beshear was winning at the top of the Rat ticket. Stevenson, like McGrath, also has military cred, having once been in the Judge Advocate General's Corps in the U.S. Air Force.

  • There is also former CIA spook Joel Willett, the Deep State entrant into the race; Kentucky's version of Virginia's Abby Spanberger, but without any electoral history. He's trying to seize the all-important Democrat "Working Class Hero" (W.C.H.) designation for himself, and also has the "victim card" handy; this guy who nobody's ever heard of is apparently such a menace to GOP chances in the 2026 election that he claims to have received death threats from Republicans.

A recent addition on the Democrat side, presumably for additional comic relief, is horse trainer Dale Romans. Horses are big in Kentucky, and this guy's full of as much horseshit as any of them. He also wants to be the W.C.H. candidate in the contest, and describes himself as an "independent" Democrat even as he spouts the same nonsense as all other (presumably non-independent) Democrats. Bernie Sanders is an "independent" too.

McGrath is the most likely of the above to be the Democrat nominee, but nobody currently has any illusions that she will win. Morris may have a better shot than anticipated on the GOP side, but a squish like Barr probably has the best chance of winning a general election, and therefore the big money and big endorsements will be behind him. Cameron is currently being slimed with unproven allegations of misconduct while Attorney General, and he is also a proven statewide loser. Cameron appears to be the favorite to finish third in the GOP primary.



Minnesota:


2024 presidential results in Minnesota

This state, like Virginia (see below) is nothing but a Republican pipe dream. The congressional delegation is always pretty well balanced, either 4-4 or 5-3 every election since 2000. The state House and state Senate are very close. Minnesota doesn't register voters by party, but a company whose business it is to estimate party breakdowns calculates that Minnesota is one-third Democrat, one-third Republican and one-third independent or minor parties. This may be an oversimplification, but the Twin Cities and their suburbs (at least the first two "rings") are terrible, the rest of the state is fine. The first part of that sentence is definitely true, anyway.

When it comes to statewide elections, the GOP sometimes comes close -- but never wins. Trump won every single county in Minnesota except 4 in the Twin Cities area, 3 in the Arrowhead Region, and the counties containing Rochester and Moorhead. He still lost by 4 points, which isn't too bad a showing for a Republican in the Great White (75% and dropping) North. But the last time a Republican presidential candidate won in Minnesota was back in 1972 -- 53 years ago. There's usually some hope but it's always false hope.

It's no different in other statewide elections. From 2008 to 2024 there were 23 non-presidential statewide elections in Minnesota, for offices ranging from Governor and U.S. Senator to Auditor, Attorney General and Secretary of State. Only one candidate (Amy Klobuchar) has ever exceeded 55% of the vote during those years, and she's done that 3 times. The other 20 elections were close. Democrats won all 20 of them.


Photo credit: house.mn.gov

Speaking of "pipe dreams". . . one explanation for some of the previously close outcomes is -- or was -- the presence of doper parties on the ballot. The "Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis" party and the "Legal Marijuana Now!" party are both recognized political entities in Minnesota, but they ceased fielding candidates after 2022. That's because they no longer have any reason to do so; in 2023 the Democrat legislature passed a very lenient law which legalizes cannabis for any type of use, not just medicinal. The fact that the doper parties are now obsolete helps Democrats, because these parties were regularly siphoning off thousands of left-wing votes in major elections.



Republicans are pretending that they have a chance to pick up the Minnesota Senate seat in 2026. It is an open seat, being vacated by Democrat Tina Smith, who is retiring. Smith, who compiled a nearly 100% liberal rating while in the Senate, was first appointed in 2018 when Democrats forced another liberal Democrat, sexual predator Al Franken, to resign. Smith's most recent election in 2020 was a good example of how Democrats were once hindered electorally, as two stoner candidates combined to take 7.7% of the vote away from her. So Smith only won by about 5 points instead of 12 or 13 points.

The 2026 Democrat primary will be between Lt. Governor Peggy Flanagan and congresswoman Angie Craig. Flanagan has some problems, such as financial improprieties in her office, and being endorsed by Bernie Sanders; Craig is one of those lifelong liberals who suddenly sprints hysterically towards the center when seeking higher office. There's a 98% chance (rounding down) that one of these two will be the next ultra-liberal U.S. Senator from the state of Minnesota.

Ex-professional basketball player Royce White ran for the Senate in 2024 in Minnesota against Amy Klobuchar, and the Republican was stomped by over 15 points, a good example of a margin of Democrat victory when the dopers no longer split the left-wing vote. He is running again in 2026. White moved quickly across the political spectrum, going from left-wing hero in 2020 when he was leading Black Lives Matter protests after the death of "St. Floyd of Fentanyl" (White does have a history of mental illness); he's recovered from that, and is now described as a "right-wing populist". White has just as much chance of winning in 2026 -- none at all -- as he had in 2024. And he is the probable front-runner among Republicans, which shows just how much of a barren wasteland Minnesota is for the GOP. None of the state's 4 moderate Republican congressmen want any part of this race either.


Photo credit: yahoo.com

This foregone conclusion of an election might be spiced up a bit if ex-sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya were to enter the race on the GOP side. Tafoya was a long-time sideline reporter for NFL games, and during her career she was employed by several networks including CBS, ESPN and NBC. She retired from that profession in January, 2022; the last game she worked was Super Bowl LVI.

Tafoya, a self-described "pro-choice conservative with Libertarian leanings", is now a political commentator, doing podcasts from her home in the suburban Twin Cities area. She has been rumored as a potential candidate for the Minnesota Senate seat, but has not yet made any move towards running. The main challengers to White for the GOP nod are a pair of retired Navy veterans, Adam Schwarze and Tom Weiler, neither of whom have any political experience -- which isn't necessarily a bad thing -- but they have no name recognition (or sufficient funding, or a prayer of winning) either.



Nebraska:


Photo credit: Zach Wendling/Nebraska Examiner

Democrat-in-disguise Dan Osborn is the Great "Independent" Hope for the left in the state of Nebraska. Fresh off of a defeat in the 2024 Senate election against incumbent GOP squish Deb Fischer in which he came closer than some expected, Osborn is rested and ready to give it another go in 2026. Osborn took all of the Democrat money he could get in 2024, but concealed his true political identity by refusing to accept the Democrat party label which is repugnant in the Cornhusker State outside of Omaha and Lincoln. Not even including all of the supposedly-independent liberal cashflow coming from outside the state, Osborn's fundraising dwarfed that of Fischer. Numerous polls showed a close race in 2024, and some even had Osborn prevailing by a small amount. Osborn won the two big liberal cities and lost everywhere else; the final outcome was a 6.7% victory for the Republican. Only one or two forecasters actually got it right; the other polls (nearly all of which were paid for by Osborn's campaign) were nothing but wishful thinking, propaganda and hot air.

Osborn's opponent in 2026 will be Nebraska's other squishy moderate Senator, Pete Ricketts. Ricketts, the former two-term Governor of Nebraska, was appointed in January, 2023 to fill the Senate vacancy caused by the resignation of rabid Trump-hating Republican Ben Sasse. Ricketts then easily won the 2024 special election to fill the remainder of Sasse's unexpired term.

That effortless win came against a Democrat, and defeating any Democrat statewide is a slam dunk in Nebraska these days. In 2024 the national party kept its support of Osborn a secret until the final days of the campaign. National Rats are now out of the closet, and have proudly endorsed the faux independent for 2026. They have yet to support Osborn with the big money which will enable him to easily outspend Ricketts (but that will come). For his part, Osborn is careful to appear in flannel shirts, holding a hunting rifle if possible, and making sure to stress that he was once a member of Organized Labor. So unlike most Democrat "working class hero" wannabes, this guy really did once-upon-a-time work for a living before becoming a politician.

Just like in 2024, the polls purport to indicate a close race. Just like in 2024, those biased polls are very likely to be wrong when the votes are counted. But Democrats have all the money in the world, as they have conclusively shown in recent years, so why not spend it -- even on an "independent", even in a normally unwinnable state?

Because 2026 just might not be a normal election year.



Virginia:

One last word about a ridiculous GOP pipe dream state: there are probably some folks out there who are still in disbelief regarding the 2025 election results in Virginia. Unwilling to accept the reality that the Old Dominion is not remotely competitive anymore, they may think that outgoing Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin could somehow repeat his fluke win from 2021 in the 2026 Senate race against well-entrenched liberal Mark Warner.

Youngkin is a good man, and he stood up just recently against Virginia Democrats' attempt (which will succeed) to gerrymander the state's congressional districts and disenfranchise Republicans, costing them 2 or perhaps 3 seats. Youngkin is not a stupid man, and to all indications will not be entering a Senate race that he is extremely unlikely to win. If Youngkin declines, Republican pickup chances of the Virginia Senate seat drop from maybe 20% to absolute zero. Drop the pipe, wake up from the dream, and look elsewhere for potential Republican pickups.

Tags:

2026 Senate Louisiana Alaska Kentucky Minnesota Nebraska Virginia


8/22/2024: House Battlegrounds -- Alaska and Washington [RightDataUSA]

In 2020 the voters of Alaska allowed themselves to be bamboozled by a slick advertising campaign bankrolled by tons of out-of-state liberal money, and approved Rigged Choice Voting (RCV) by the margin of 50.5% to 49.5%; it took effect with the 2022 elections. Under RCV as it is still being used in Alaska in 2024, all candidates for an office run together on a single primary ballot, with the top 4 -- regardless of party -- advancing to the general election ballot. If no candidate gets over 50% on the "first" ballot in November, votes are shuffled around and many voters are disenfranchised, and then the Democrat (or ultra-liberal Republican) wins. At least that's how it works in practice.

The primary goal of RCV is to marginalize conservative candidates and prevent them from winning an election, and RCV therefore attempts to force Republicans to move drastically to the left in order to have any chance. Mendacious proponents of RCV claim that the same thing theoretically happens on the other side too -- with radical leftists being forced to the center as well -- yet ultra-liberal Democrats are somehow never affected. Not one Democrat has yet lost a federal election because of RCV, but several Republicans or conservatives have.


Photo credit: womenzmag.com

For example, RCV was directly responsible for the otherwise highly-unlikely Republican loss of the Alaska U.S. House seat in 2022, and this new convoluted way of counting votes assisted immeasurably with the Senate re-election of far-left "Republican" Lisa Murkowski over underfunded conservative challenger Kelly Tshibaka that year. Democrats did not even bother to contest that Senate election aside from the tiniest token effort, since Murkowski is for all intents and purposes one of them anyway; she votes more often with Democrats than she does with Republicans.

One thing which is of paramount importance in this rigged system is for a major party to enforce discipline among its potential candidates, making sure not to split the vote among party rivals. The Democrats, who don't exactly have a lot of candidates in Alaska anyway, understand this; the Republicans -- who are known as the Stupid Party, and for good reason -- have repeatedly failed to grasp this concept.

In 2022, Sarah Palin and Nick Begich split the GOP vote and allowed a liberal Democrat to steal the election even though Republicans took over 60% of the open primary vote. The Palin-haters within the GOP who initially supported Begich then "won" in November by throwing their support to the Democrat instead of to Palin.


Photo credit: Yereth Rosen/Alaska Beacon)

Buyer's remorse regarding RCV has set in, and this November the repeal of that abomination will be on the ballot after withstanding court challenges from the left. That's fine, but Republicans on August 20 took one (perhaps) last opportunity to demonstrate their stupidity. They once again ran multiple candidates for the House -- Begich is back for another shot, opposed by gadfly candidate Nancy Dahlstrom -- and once again have created a damaging intra-party rift which is likely to be costly in November.

Liberal Democrat incumbent Mary Peltola, who has been furiously faking to the center with her House votes this year, even achieved a tick more than 50% of the vote in last Tuesday's all-party primary. If this happens again in 2 1/2 months, the Rigged Choice Voting provisions won't even be necessary for the Republicans to be defeated once more in their quest for Alaska's lone seat in Congress. The disarray among the GOP in The Last Frontier may even result in the permanent retention of Rigged Choice Voting, since Republicans are the ones who oppose this Democrat scheme while Democrats (obviously) strongly support it, and the Republican fracture at the House level may carry over and jeopardize the repeal of RCV.

Those Republicans who support the repeal of RCV are currently being outspent by a 2:1 ratio by Democrat forces which desperately wish to keep it in place. Do not take this issue lightly simply because it's happening in a state which is as far away as possible from most American voters, and not normally considered to be politically significant.

Maine and Alaska have been the guinea pigs for Rigged Choice Voting and liberals couldn't be happier with the results they have achieved so far. Though a handful of states have pre-emptively banned RCV, there's still a good chance that it will be approaching a state near you in the not-too-distant future.


Photo credit: ustimespost.com

The state of Washington held its primary on August 6, but the deadline for vote-counting isn't until August 23. There were a few races worth noting in this all-mail voting state, including one which very well may continue past the stated deadline -- but only if the Republican erases the infinitesimal lead which a Democrat currently has. After all, it's a well-established state tradition that the result of a close election is not declared final until the Democrat wins (just ask Republican "Governor" Dino Rossi).

Washington is one of five states which conduct elections entirely by mail-in voting. The Democrat-controlled legislature passed a bill in 2011 which mandates that approach to elections, and it was signed into law by Democrat Governor Christine Gregoire -- the same person who reaped the benefits of the creative Democrat vote counting (and recounting, and recounting) shenanigans back in 2004 at Rossi's expense.

Since all-mail voting became the law of the land in Washington, Republicans have lost every election for Senate and Governor there, and only two Republicans have been victorious for other statewide elections (one of which wasn't even opposed by a Democrat that November) in 13 years. The GOP hasn't done too well at the state legislative level nor the U.S. House level either, both of those being things which are heavily influenced by perpetual Democrat gerrymanders.

The lone "Republican" who has enjoyed true success running statewide in the Evergreen State was former Secretary of State Kim Wyman. Wyman was elected to that office, which is in charge of election administration (including vote counting) in 2012 and then was elected again in 2016 and 2020. Her effectiveness on behalf of Democrats while in her position as Republican S.O.S. is nicely illustrated by the fact that she resigned in 2021 in order to work for -- we're not making this up -- the Deep State entity known as the "Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency" in an important position dealing with "election security". That is a term normally defined by Democrats as "making sure Republicans don't interfere with our cheating".


Photo credit: carboncredits.com

The real nailbiter of a race which is currently going on in Washington is for the office of Commissioner of Public Lands (CPL), which is wide open since the incumbent liberal Democrat commissioner, Hillary Franz, chose to run for Congress in Washington's 6th district instead. She lost her primary earlier this month and promptly blamed dark and evil forces for her defeat. Speaking of which, the easy winner in November in CD-6 will now be ultra-liberal Democrat Emily Randall, who will be a real barrier-breaker as the first Latina dyke ever to be elected to Congress.

Votes are still being tabulated, but the CPL race unofficially stands like this at the moment:

  1. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R): 419.297, 22.0%
  2. Dave Upthegrove (D): 396,300, 20.8%
  3. Sue Pederson (R): 396,249, 20.8%
Check out the difference between second and third place. Only the top 2 finishers advance to the November election.

Pederson ran against Franz in 2020 and lost by 13.5%. She has never held public office. Herrera is the Trump-hating former congresswoman and Impeachment RINO who was defeated in the 2022 primary election. She refused to endorse the conservative Republican (Joe Kent) who defeated her, and Kent went on to lose narrowly to Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez -- another freshman who, like Alaska's Mary Peltola, has been furiously faking to the center in 2024 in a desperate bid to conceal her liberal leanings from the voters in her district.

Kent has been magnanimous where Beutler was not, and he has endorsed his former opponent in her bid to become Washington's Commissioner of Public Lands.

The top 3 finishers in the CPL race are listed above; the remaining votes are scattered among 4 candidates. Herrera and Pederson are the only two Republicans in the race; five Democrats split approximately 57% of the vote. If the Democrats quickly certify Upthegrove as the #2 finisher in the primary (which they will if he stays ahead; otherwise look for as many recounts as necessary) he will therefore be the clear favorite to win in November when the Democrats unite behind their guy. Having two GOP-ers on the ballot and zero Democrats, resulting in a guaranteed Republican win, would have been quite an accomplishment for the party.

We'll find out shortly if that's allowed to happen.


Photo credit: mynorthwest.com

Elsewhere in Washington, there were hotly-contested primary elections in the three districts (out of a total of 10) where Republicans have any real chance at victory in November.

In CD-5 (Eastern Washington: Spokane, Walla Walla, Pullman) incumbent moderate Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers is retiring at the age of 55 after 10 terms in the House. She will be replaced in the R+8 district by Spokane County Treasurer Michael Baumgartner after the formality of his general election victory in a few months. He's likely to be even more "moderate" than the woman he's replacing. This district could do better.

In CD-3 (Southwest Washington: Vancouver) it will be Round 2 for Joe Kent vs. Marie Perez. The district is rated as R+5 which means it shouldn't really even be a tossup -- the GOP should win with relative ease -- but the solidly conservative MAGA Republican, Kent, was repeatedly backstabbed by his own party in 2022 and might be again. Democrats are spending an ungodly amount of money to try to hold this seat, which is at or near #1 on the list of potential Republican pickups in the House for 2024. Kent may win this time around, but there won't be any "relative ease" about it and he'd better be wearing a Kevlar vest at all times to insulate himself from knife wounds.

After losing by less than 1% in 2022, Kent immediately declared that he would be running again in 2024. Probably with behind-the-scenes help from the GOP establishment, Republican lawyer Leslie Lewallen made her way into the race for the express purpose of sabotaging Kent's chances. She spent the primary campaign focusing solely on attacking Kent even though Democrat Perez was on the same ballot.

Kent trounced Lewallen on August 6 by over 25 points. The two Republicans combined to receive over 51% of the vote, with just under 46% for the Democrat and 2.5% for an independent. If -- and only if -- nearly all of Lewallen's voters move to Kent in November this district will have a conservative congressman for the first time since Linda Smith (1995-1998) and Smith was much more of a libertarian than a conservative.


Washington congressional district 4

The highest-profile congressional primary in Washington took place in the solidly Republican (R+11) 4th district, which covers the central third of the state geographically, including Yakima and the Tri-Cities area. CD-4 is only 52% White and 40% Hispanic (nearly all of which are Mexicans) but the non-citizens tend to not vote, and those citizens who do vote lean staunchly to the right. No Democrat has exceeded 40% in a House election here since 1996, with the exception of 2006 when the Rats barely cleared that figure (40.1%).

The 2024 election will be the third one in the last six where two Republicans and zero Democrats will battle for the win. The incumbent, liberal Republican Dan Newhouse, is the next-to-last House Impeachment RINO left standing. All others among the 10 in the House GOP who voted to impeach Donald Trump have either run away voluntarily or been defeated at the polls since they did their dirty deed. Aside from Newhouse, the only one remaining is David Valadao of California, who represents a Democrat-leaning district in the Central Valley.

While Trump had endorsed one of Newhouse's two challengers (Jerrod Sessler) in this race long ago, he decided to increase his chances of padding the Trump Winning Percentage by also endorsing the other challenger (Tiffany Smiley) on the eve of the primary. Trump's rhetoric against the liberal Newhouse was, oddly (or perhaps not so oddly), comparatively mild compared to his vitriol against 100% conservative Rep. Bob Good, who lost his primary in Virginia a few weeks back.



Sessler ran for the CD-4 seat in 2022 and finished fourth in the primary, splitting the conservative vote with former gubernatorial candidate Loren Culp. Culp finished third, so only Newhouse and Democrat Doug White advanced to the general election. That outcome was quite the win-win for the GOPe and other leftists, with two conservatives biting the dust and two liberals moving on.

A similar scheme was in the cards for 2024 as well, with the GOPe protecting Newhouse again by having former senatorial candidate Tiffany Smiley enter the race belatedly in order to siphon votes from Sessler. Smiley was obliterated in the 2022 U.S. Senate race vs. doddering ultra-liberal incumbent Patsy Murray, but in the process Smiley proved to be an attractive candidate (in maximum contrast to Murray; unfortunately the election wasn't a beauty contest) -- and more importantly Smiley showed a solid ability to fundraise. She actually raised several million more than Murray in terms of small donations, but Murray had the full weight of the ActBlue Democrat money launderers and lots of other billionaire/corporate funding. Plus, this is Washington after all -- it's not as if a Democrat Senate incumbent is going to lose no matter how much money any GOP challenger raises.

Smiley was likely insinuated into the CD-4 House race by the GOPe this year with the hope that she could overwhelm Sessler in the $$$$ department, but she couldn't. Smiley tried to convince voters that she is a conservative but utterly failed to do that. Her past track record as a moderate, including endorsements from groups like the left-wing Log Cabin Republican homos, did not endear her to the voters.

Smiley was eliminated from further contention with less than 20% of the vote. Sessler came in first with 33% and Newhouse received only 23%. This is the first time since 2014 that Newhouse has failed to finish first in the primary -- but he defeated a conservative Republican (former NFL tight end Clint Didier) that November too. Sadly, he'll probably survive again this year. Sessler's going to need damn near every one of Smiley's voters to flock to his side because Newhouse will get the 23% who went for Democrats in the primary. That plus his own 23% gets him real close. Ugh.


Photo credit: jerrodforcongress.com

Sessler is a decorated Naval veteran (not some Stolen Valor coward like Democrat VP nominee Tampon Timmy Walz) who has also beaten Stage IV cancer which was said to be 95% terminal. He is a solid Christian conservative who describes himself as an American Patriot. Perhaps at this point you are beginning to understand why the GOPe fears Jerrod Sessler.

If Sessler is elected, he should be a reliably conservative vote in the House (unlike Newhouse) and based on his background will likely be a fighter for his country and his party, as opposed to being a go-along-to-get-along spineless milquetoast like the vast majority of House Republicans.


Photo credit: Outside Groove

As an aside, Sessler's campaign bio touches briefly on the fact that he is a "former NASCAR driver". It's hardly a big part of his list of qualifications, but it almost became a sticking point two years ago. Sessler was no national star as a driver; he participated in a small regional racing series which was under the auspices of NASCAR. [BTW, Sessler is the second ex-NASCAR driver running for the House this year as a Republican; we wrote about the other one here].

Just before the 2022 primary, NASCAR executives became aware of Sessler's candidacy and were concerned that he might be pulling a "Walz" and claiming to be something he really wasn't; they apparently had no record of Sessler's racing history and would surely have ordered Sessler to cease and desist using the NASCAR trademark in his campaign if evidence had not been furnished to back his claim.

NASCAR, long ago, was considered to be a "Republican" sport and kind of the antithesis of today's leftist/racist WNBA. NASCAR was a sport with good patriotic American participants and fans (again, the opposite of the WNBA). These days, however, NASCAR is every bit as "politically correct" as the major sports it so desperately wishes to emulate, and its corporate executives and bean-counters are almost uniformly well to the left on the political spectrum.

There is no longer any controversy about Sessler's NASCAR credentials, which are unimportant anyway, so those who loathe conservatives -- including the entire Republican establishment -- are finding other weapons with which to assault Sessler. Trump's going to have to put a lot of his political weight behind this challenger, or an Impeachment RINO is going to avoid extinction one more time.

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