| 11/13/2025: An Electoral S.A.T. Math Question: "2025 Is To 2017 As 2026 Is To ____ ?" [RightDataUSA] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The election results from November 4, 2025 bear a striking resemblance to those from November 7th of 2017. In the aftermath of the 2025 Democrat sweeps in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City -- and elsewhere -- most right-wing analysts are trying to appear calm as they whistle past the graveyard in their attempts to dismiss the disaster as "completely expected", "limited to 'blue' states", "unimportant" and, most of all, "meaningless as far as next year's midterms are concerned".
The polls sure were wrong -- but not the way we wanted them to be.
Possibly thinking: "Wow, the voters agreed with me! Republicans (and their children) DO deserve to die!"
Regarding the Republicans' gubernatorial defeats: it's one thing to be expected to lose, it's another thing to be completely obliterated and to have the calamity permeate the entire election ballot to the point where Republicans also hemorrhaged seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and the state Assembly in New Jersey.
In 2025, Democrats cemented their control of the PA Supreme Court for years to come.
Pennsylvania voters had the opportunity to send those judges packing. Instead, all three judges who were up for retention were overwhelmingly returned (by nearly 25-point margins) to the court for another 10-year term. The PA Democrat Supreme Court thus maintains its 5-2 majority, and one of the two Republicans on the court barely qualifies as such; there is only one true Republican out of seven judges on the PA Court.
"Unimportant". . . "Not a big deal": Virginia, like some other solid "blue" states, is considering congressional re-redistricting. Virginia Democrats, soon to be in complete control of state government, would like to imitate California and disenfranchise Republicans via extreme gerrymandering. The results from last Tuesday surely embolden those Democrats. A small minority of New York City voters just elected a radical alien socialist as mayor. Tell the good people of California, Virginia and New York City that these results are "not a big deal". But the tiny, fragile twig that GOP pundits are seriously attempting to hang their hats on is this one: These results mean nothing for the future because "things change", "twelve months is an eternity in politics", blah blah blah. Platitudes, wishful thinking and other drivel are a poor substitute for actual analysis. On this website, we look at data rather than "feels". With the results from 2025 being so uncannily similar to the ones from 2017, it would be idiotic not to examine the results from 2018 and see how they might be pertinent to the upcoming 2026 midterms even if those midterms are "an eternity" away at this moment. The similarity of 2017 to 2025 is parallel to the relationship between 2016 and 2024. In 2016 Donald Trump won the presidency with 304 electoral votes and took 30 states. He won 45.9% of the popular vote. In 2024 Trump won the presidency again, this time with 312 electoral votes and 31 states (adding Nevada). He received 49.7% of the popular vote, the improvement coming not at the expense of his Democrat opponent but from the deterioration of third-party candidates, whose vote share was 4% less in 2024 than it had been in 2016. Kamala Harris actually took a greater percentage of the popular vote (48.2%) than Hillary Clinton had (48.0%). The parallel doesn't quite carry over to the House, where Republicans were in much better shape after 2016 than they are after 2024 (a net loss of 21 seats). But that's mainly because of what happened in 2018 -- which is the whole point here -- with the GOP losing many seats. Those losses were only partially offset in 2020 and 2022. After 2016 Republicans controlled the Senate by 52-48. After 2024 they now have a 53-47 advantage. That's pretty similar. Having compared 2024 to 2016, let's now shift one year and consider 2025 vs. 2017. Because 2021 was a significant factor in the false optimism which accompanied future elections in New Jersey and Virginia, we will show data for that year as well. 2017:
Happier days: 2021 gubernatorial election results in Virginia 2021:
Adding to the false hope in NJ was Trump losing by "only" 5.9% in 2024 and Curtis Bashaw losing by only 9.7% for the Senate. Also there was a voter registration shift to the right, a net change of 100K between 2022 and 2024, but the Rats were still up 900K (13.5%). In 2025 things improved, with the GOP being down 855K and 12.9%. Whoopee. As far as the 2025 elections in New Jersey were concerned, that wasn't false hope -- that was no hope. Turnout helped Republicans overcome some of their disadvantages in NJ in 2021 (registration deficit and state-level gerrymander) but things would return to normal in 2025 despite the indications from some occasionally cheery -- but sadly inaccurate -- pre-election polls. In Virginia there was an actual basis for hope after 2021 -- for a little while. There are no partisan voter registration stats to go by, however the election results were so encouraging that Republicans were expecting further gains in 2023 and 2024. In 2023 they failed to pick up the one state Senate seat they needed to get to 20-20 (GOP Lt. Governor would break the tie), and they lost 3 seats in the state House of Delegates, which was the exact number required to lose the House, giving Democrats full control of the state legislature and derailing any agenda GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin may have had. In 2024 Trump reduced his deficit from 10.1% to 5.7%, but his margin of defeat (260,000 votes) was still the second-worst of any GOP candidate in Virginia history, second only to Trump in 2020. Even in percentage terms it was the worst (aside from 2020) of any GOP nominee since Goldwater in '64. False hope extended to the 2024 senatorial campaign of Republican Hung Cao, whose 2022 showing as a House candidate in CD-10 was considered to be impressive. He lost by merely 6.5% that year in a district which was designed to give the Democrat a 10-12 point win. Whoopee again. Many delusionals thought that Cao could keep it close against Timmy Kaine in 2024, but few polls ever had him within single digits. Cao "overachieved" again. He only lost by 9 points. There was no false hope regarding GOP chances in Virginia in 2025; there was no hope at all aside from perhaps the Attorney General race. Polls showed a tossup but it turned out that a majority of Virginia voters agreed with the Democrat candidate on the pertinent topic of slaughtering Republicans and their children. 2025:
Republicans can be thankful for the lack of state Senate contests in NJ and VA in November, 2025; they couldn't lose more seats there if there weren't any elections. 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial results by region:
The above results for the 2025 Governor election are of course still unofficial (data as of 11/10) but are at least 95% complete in most counties. We defined the regions of New Jersey here: November 2025 Gubernatorial Elections -- New Jersey & Virginia. The Republican percentage of the vote collapsed to pre-2021 levels in all regions, even if not quite (in some areas) as bad as the GOP percentages from 2017 . Only in the Central Coast area did Jack Ciattarelli compare favorably at all to his results from 2021. In every other region of the state he finished well behind not only his surprisingly competitive 2021 performance but also behind Trump's mediocre showing in 2024. GOP results in the critical (and supposedly right-trending) northern part of New Jersey were especially disappointing. South Jersey was also a disaster for Ciattarelli. He had come barely one point away from winning that region in 2021 but lost it by a whopping 15 points last week. As we predicted, turnout in the ghetto areas of New Jersey returned to normal from the 2021 dropoff. That certainly wasn't good news for the Republican, but his problems were hardly confined to the worst areas of the state. Also, slightly-improving voter registration figures apparently aren't a guarantee of electoral success -- especially when those voters decline to participate. 
Artist's conception of the GOP's 2018 election results
Back to 2018:
An ongoing story throughout 2018 was the number of Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives who suddenly decided that they would not seek re-election in November. There were 23 Republicans who declined to run again for any office, and 11 other House Republicans who chose to run for a different office. Many of these 34, such as former House Speaker Paul Ryan, were anti-Trump moderates or liberals in marginal districts who were content with the prospect of potentially being replaced by Democrats. When trying to explain the debacle which resulted that November, with the GOP losing 40 House seats, the voluntary exodus was a convenient excuse albeit a false or at least incomplete one. Of the 34 Republicans who walked away in 2018, only 10 of them were replaced by Democrats. That's a considerable number, but a far cry from 40. The far bigger reason for the Republican party demise was the 30 incumbents who ran for re-election and lost. Seven of the total of 40 GOP losses occurred in California, which had just legalized a new form of Democrat electoral chicanery known as "ballot harvesting". That tactic allows ballots to be collected and counted for weeks after election day. Of the 7 Republican seats which evaporated in CA, at least 5 of them required "extra time" for the Democrat to eventually prevail. In 2018 the Real Clear Politics generic congressional polling final averages were GOP 44.9%, Democrat 53.3%. That polling could hardly have been more accurate -- after all the ballots were finally counted, the House vote share was GOP 44.8% (was 49.1% in 2016), Democrat 53.4% (was 48.0% in 2016). In case you're wondering about 2026 at this point, the current RCP congressional polling averages are GOP 42.0%, Democrats 46.1%. There are still lots of undecideds 12 months out from the election, but that 42.0% mark is abysmal. The whistlers past the graveyard now have another data point to ignore if they intend to remain adamant that 2026 can't possibly be as bad as 2018 was. 
Senate results from 2018
The House went up in flames but Election Night 2018 was a good one for Republicans in the Senate. Good, but not great. The 2017 GOP defeat in Alabama had left the Republicans with a narrow 51-49 majority. In 2018 they picked up 4 Senate seats (FL, IN, MO, ND) but also lost a pair of seats which they had previously held (AZ, NV) for a net +2. For a little while there also seemed a possibility of the GOP losing Thad Cochran's seat in Mississippi.
Here, at last, is how the playing field stands as we head into 2026: Before we look at the prospects for the House in 2026, let's quantify what happened in 2018. In 2018 there were 80 districts (out of 435) across the nation which we would classify as marginal -- being in the range of D+5 to R+5. Those 80 are worth examining because they were the districts most likely to change hands. During any kind of "wave" election, as we saw in 2018, obviously more of them will change hands. Districts which are outside the marginal range are normally considered safe unless there is a wave of unusual intensity or there are other circumstances which make an incumbent vulnerable despite the lean of his district. Some facts about those 80 marginal districts in 2018:
Additionally, Republicans lost 8 House seats which were not in the marginal range and were assumed to be at least moderately safe. Six of those 8 districts saw GOP incumbents bite the dust; only 2 were open seats (one more dagger in the feeble "we lawst just coz of all the re-tyre-mints!" argument). The above data illustrates the impact of the 2018 "blue" wave in the House. Even though the 80 marginal districts tilted slightly to the right on average, Republicans still managed to lose 61 of the 80. And on top of that the 8 others which were supposed to be safe-ish. That's what a massacre looks like, so you'll recognize it if you see one again in 2026. As noted, the "marginal playing field" was tilted towards the Republicans in 2018. If the parties had won every tossup district in which they were favored and then split the 10 even districts, Republicans won have won 53 out of those 80 districts instead of just 19 of 80, a difference of 34 seats. Give the GOP 34 more House seats in 2018 (they would've had control, 234-201) and suddenly the second half of Trump's first term looks a lot different. We have looked at all House districts for 2026, factoring in new maps in Texas, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and California and we are assuming they are not overturned in court prior to ever being used. Try to look surprised when the partisan Democrat gerrymander in California passes judicial muster but Republican maps elsewhere do not. A new Democrat gerrymander was just approved on November 11 by a liberal judge in heavily-Republican Utah, which creates two more marginal districts (not being counted here yet) and very well could cause two Republicans to lose in 2026. In Utah. Pending upcoming Democrat gerrymanders which are still on the drawing board in states like Virginia, Maryland, Illinois and Colorado, and pending the much-anticipated Supreme Court ruling which may remove the requirement for certain states to create anti-White districts, here is how the House battleground is taking shape for 2026: There are currently 91 House districts which fall into the D+5 to R+5 range according to our ratings. We count 41 of those districts as having GOP incumbents and 41 with Democrat incumbents. The remaining 9 districts have no incumbent running, and that number will increase over the next few months. Including currently open seats, Republicans must defend 45 districts and Democrats 46. That's about as even a breakdown as can be.
The likely effects of the ongoing redistricting currently are:
We will cover the Senate prospects for 2026 in a commentary which will shortly follow this one. Conclusion: With even more re-redistricting to come, forecasting the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House elections from this far out is just a guessing game. Democrat-controlled states including (but not limited to) Virginia, Maryland, Illinois, Colorado and New York are lining up to disenfranchise Republicans further whether the law permits them to do so at this time or not. Maryland has only one GOP congressman left to be exterminated, but those other states can do much more damage. As we've mentioned, even rock-solid Republican Utah is being forced by a liberal black-robed tyrant to hand over 1 or perhaps even 2 House seats to Democrats (Utah only has 4 altogether). Some Republican states, perhaps including Florida, Kansas, Nebraska and Indiana can do unto Democrats as Democrats in other states will be doing unto Republicans. But deep-"red" Indiana has already chickened out, Kansas (like Indiana and Missouri) could gain only 1 seat at most -- they all count, so don't scoff too much -- and the GOP can't gain any in Nebraska but can save one which otherwise is about to go down the toilet. Only in Florida is there the potential for a Republican state to get some "California-style" revenge on Democrats, but they could overextend themselves and wind up worse off than where they started (as could easily occur in North Carolina). The Supreme Court may come to the rescue. Do not hold your breath waiting for that. A case is pending, brought by a group of White voters in Louisiana who are challenging the racist congressional district map which was demanded by a judge and then used for the 2024 House elections. These disenfranchised voters are suing in an attempt to strike down a map which created a second black-majority district in their state. If the USSC rules in favor of the plaintiffs, professional racists are concerned that all racist Democrat gerrymandering everywhere -- which has been "the law" since at least the early 1990s -- will collapse, thereby eliminating several districts ("19" is the magic number they keep quoting) which are currently held by black Democrats, and those Democrats will all be replaced by White Republicans. As a result, the GOP would firm up its control of the House such that no amount of Democrat gerrymanders in California, Virginia, New York, Illinois or wherever can offset. This is utter nonsense. First the case has to actually be decided and the Supreme Court is in no hurry, especially in an election year; it will surely be 2026 before anything happens. Secondly, the court has to decide the right way. Does anyone really expect there to be 5 votes for doing the right thing here? John Roberts can almost certainly be relied upon to do the wrong thing. Again. Then there has to be sufficient time to draw new maps in the affected states. And sufficient time for the immediate Democrat lawsuits to be heard. And then those suits must be rejected so the new maps can be implemented. Good luck with all that. And then things have to work out the way panicky Democrats fear they will. Let's take a look at how the Democrat crystal ball came up with this cockamamie number of "19" seats which they claim are in jeopardy if the USSC disallows racist (i.e. Democrat) gerrymandering in certain southern states. Remember: this stuff was never about race; it was always about partisan politics. Whenever you see the word "black" or "minority" in some racist court ruling, replace that word with "Democrat" if you want to know the truth. As best we can guess from trying to interpret the feverish nightmares of Democrats, here are the Magic 19:
So there you have it: 19 House seats which are currently held by black Democrats. If the recently created maps in MO and NC hold up in court, then the GOP will be +2. If the Supreme Court does the right thing and does it promptly, there is a good chance for Republicans to reclaim the two seats (AL-2, LA-6) which black-robed leftist dictators stole from them in 2024. There will be no further developments in Missouri or North Carolina. That leaves Florida and Georgia as the only hopes for inflicting some damage on the Rats. That's much easier said than done. No matter what lies Democrats are telling about this upcoming court ruling, Republicans will never get anywhere near +19. Doing so would require them to eliminate most or all of the above districts and then create ones which will elect a Republican. And then have those district maps persist despite Democrat lawsuits. That's completely impossible, and Democrats know it. But they never fail to play the race card or the victim card whenever they can, the media swallows that shit up and then regurgitates it for the purpose of bamboozling low-info, low-intelligence voters into voting (D). The fluctuating re-redistricting landscape is making 2026 a unique year for which to forecast House elections, and that will be true until all maps are final. Even ignoring that factor for the moment, there is already substantial evidence to conclude that the 2026 results will mirror the results from 2018; conversely, at this time there is zero evidence (wishful thinking is not "evidence") that the 2026 results will not mimic 2018, at least as far as the general direction those results will take. To what degree that will happen is something that can't be anticipated with any precision yet. It's very possible that Congress in 2027-28 will look very much like the one from 2019-20, with Democrats -- no matter how slender their majority -- marching in lockstep in full control of the House ("Peach Mints are back on the menu immediately!") while disunited Republicans perhaps cling to nominal Senate control with a lame duck in the White House. Tags:
2025
2026 (uh oh)
Virginia
New Jersey
And just about everywhere else
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