We've already covered the eight U.S. Senate seats which have the greatest probability of changing hands in 2026. The list includes 3 seats currently held by Democrats and 5 which have GOP incumbents. Most of the other 27 Senate seats which will have elections next year appear to be perfectly safe for the party which holds them. A few others fall just short of "perfectly safe".

Perfectly safe (or close to it) Senate seats:

• Republican: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (special), Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming

• Democrat: Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia

Louisiana gubernatorial jungle primary, 1987

Louisiana:

This Senate seat is highly unlikely to slip away from the GOP next year, but it may be an interesting race.

As of 2026 Louisiana is abandoning its "jungle" primary system which was instituted in 1975 by Democrat Governor (and eventual convicted felon) Eddie Edwards. Louisiana is returning to single-party closed primaries, and that sounds like a good thing.

But it probably isn't.

In 1975 Republicans accounted for less than 10% of the Louisiana electorate and were outnumbered by as many as 2,000,000 Democrats statewide. From the end of Radical Reconstruction, Republicans were never anything close to being a viable factor in Pelican State elections. The GOP had not elected a Governor since 1876 and would never elect a Senator prior to the 21st century. Until the 1960's, Republicans were unheard of in the congressional delegation or in the state legislature. In these respects, Louisiana was no different from many other Deep South states.

By 1975 however, Edwards may have noticed that the GOP (though still largely nascent) was beginning to grow, and the Democrat Governor desired to rig the system to favor his party. In a jungle primary, all candidates regardless of party run together on the same ballot. The top two finishers -- also regardless of party -- advance to the general election which is essentially a runoff. A wrinkle which was added in Louisiana is that if any candidate achieves a majority of the vote in the jungle primary, then that candidate is declared the winner of the race and there is no general election for that office. An example of how this worked is the 2020 U.S. Senate election, in which RINO Bill Cassidy was re-elected.

In the jungle primary which took place on November 3, 2020, Cassidy faced 14 challengers (5 Democrats, 1 Republican, 1 Libertarian, 7 independents), exactly zero of which posed a serious threat -- all 5 Democrats combined added up to only 36% and the one other Republican contender barely registered a pulse. Cassidy won with 59.3% of the vote. Had his percentage not exceeded the magic number of 50, he would have been forced into a runoff with the second-place finisher.

Photo of inmate No. 03128-095 from wwltv.com

What really triggered Edwards was the February, 1972 gubernatorial race, in which he first won the jungle primary against over a dozen other candidates (but did not even get 25% of the vote) and then narrowly prevailed in a grueling runoff against Bennett Johnston and then had to face Republican David Treen in the general which turned out much closer than expected. Treen had cruised easily through the GOP primary and did not need to endure any runoff. So why, Edwards asked, should the vastly outnumbered Republican party be guaranteed a spot on a general election ballot like in every other state, while Democrats had to face as many as two bruising contests just to get to that same spot?

The answer to that question, beginning in 1977, was to make Republicans in Louisiana into an effectively-disenfranchised minority group. Until the 1990's, the majority of statewide general elections in Louisiana were Democrat against Democrat. Furthermore, when no general election was needed because someone got over 50% in the jungle primary, that "someone" was always a Democrat.

This contrivance worked well for Louisiana Democrats for a long time. But Treen was elected Governor in a 1979 upset and by the 1980's the GOP at least fielded a candidate in most elections. Although after Treen won it was 16 years before another Republican was elected Governor, and it wasn't until 2004 that Republicans elected their first U.S. Senator from Louisiana. Democrats continued to dominate other statewide offices as well.

Photo credit: wwltv.com

Cassidy has a major cash advantage, Miguez and Fleming are building their war chests, and Seiden has only recently thrown her hat into the ring. Whoever wins the GOP primary will be Louisiana's next U.S. Senator. Miguez, though more of a centrist, will still take more votes from Fleming and Seiden than he will from Cassidy. Best case scenario is that at least one of the two actual conservatives makes the runoff. With one Democrat now guaranteed to be on the general election ballot (thanks again, Louisiana RINOs) billionaire ActBlue contributors may go all-out to try to steal this seat, but this is one state where it is very unlikely that they will succeed.

Democrats have nobody yet for this race in what people falsely assume is a Republican state; the GOP has only 24% of voter registrations in Alaska while 59% are registered independents. But the Democrats believe (and left-wing polls back them up) that fake-moderate ex-congresswoman Mary Peltola would be a formidable opponent against incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. Sullivan, an actual moderate, was first elected to the Senate in 2014 when he defeated incumbent Democrat Mark Begich and then was re-elected in 2020 by an unimpressive margin over big-spending liberal Al Gross.

An obscure former state legislator from the outback, Peltola entered the spotlight in August, 2022 when she reaped the full benefit of Alaska's Rigged Choice Voting (RCV) election system and won the House seat of the departed Don Young by taking 39.7% of the vote in a special election. Sarah Palin's entry into that race split the GOP vote (which totaled 58.7%), and after RCV worked its black magic Peltola was declared the winner. She won again in November against the same two GOP combatants. Republicans finally got smart in 2024 and stopped the internal warfare, with Nick Begich winning the House seat he had been denied twice previously. Democrats desperately want Peltola to run for something in 2026, whether it be Governor, Senator or House, because no other Democrat seems to be remotely viable. Alaska's filing deadline isn't until June, so the "Peltola Watch" may go on for some time.

Peltola may have a greater chance at becoming Governor rather than Senator because no Republican (so far) is stepping up to plausibly challenge Sullivan; the GOP vote will not be split, and Sullivan's squishiness will appeal to so-called independents who might otherwise vote for a Democrat. However the Governor race is wide-open and numerous Republicans will be splitting the vote in the jungle primary and probably in the general election too. If Peltola gets into that race, other Rats will flee. The over-abundance of Republican wannabes gives Democrats and Peltola the perfect opportunity to use Rigged Choice Voting to their advantage again, a la 2022.

Even if Sullivan wins another Senate term in 2026, Alaska still might hand Senate control to the Democrats. As we first predicted over 3 years ago, if Senate control hangs in the balance, uber-RINO Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski will almost certainly switch parties -- either ending her charade and becoming a Democrat, or going the Independent route and caucusing with the Dems -- and hand the Senate over to the Rats. The GOP majority hasn't been thin enough yet for this grandstanding attention whore to make any difference in that manner, but after 2026 it very well might be. Or Republicans may lose outright, and Murkowski might switch just to be on the winning team and get some better committee assignments in the last two years of her final term (before voters kick her to the curb in 2028 -- hopefully).

Murkowski previewed her intentions here, a few months ago: https://x.com/BreitbartNews/status/1937242825181090089.

Photo credit: Lexington Herald Leader

The Bluegrass State is wide-open due to the long-overdue retirement of Mitch McConnell. The best-known candidates in the Republican primary are moderate congressman Andy Barr and former Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Barr has represented the Lexington-area district in Congress since 2013 and he's turned what was once a marginal House seat into a rather safe one which Democrat no longer seriously go for in most elections; they are putting it back on their radar in 2026, however. Cameron, elected as A.G. in 2019, was seen by some on the right as insufficiently tough on Democrat crimes while in office, and his bid to move up to Governor ended dismally when he was totally outclassed (and vastly outspent) in 2023. There is also businessman Nate Morris running on the GOP side, and he is definitely the most conservative option of the three. Barr is currently the leader in the fundraising portion of the race.

Democrats seem to be pinning their hopes on one of two female statewide failures:

• Amy McGrath, who once wasted $8 million running against Barr in the 6th District and couldn't even win in hyper-Democrat 2018. The national party again spared no expense in 2020, spending nearly $100 million on McGrath as she failed to defeat the unpopular McConnell for the Senate. She won 3 counties. McGrath's 2026 campaign is built around "I hate Donald Trump, just like you do!" and nothing else aside from wrapping herself in the flag and posing as a patriot because she once was in the military. Democrats often try that approach; it seldom works outside of "blue" states (where that sort of thing isn't necessary and is probably counterproductive).

• State House Minority Leader Pamela Stevenson, who represents a Louisville ghetto district. Stevenson doesn't appear to have much of a campaign organization yet. Stevenson ran for Attorney General in 2023 and lost by 16 points even as Empty Suit Andy Beshear was winning at the top of the Rat ticket. Stevenson, like McGrath, also has military cred, having once been in the Judge Advocate General's Corps in the U.S. Air Force.

• There is also former CIA spook Joel Willett, the Deep State entrant into the race; Kentucky's version of Virginia's Abby Spanberger, but without any electoral history. He's trying to the seize the all-important Democrat "Working Class Hero" (W.C.H.) designation for himself, and also has the "victim card" handy; this guy who nobody's ever heard of is apparently such a menace to GOP chances in the 2026 election that he claims to have received death threats from Republicans.

2024 presidential results in Minnesota

This state, like Virginia (see below) is nothing but a Republican pipe dream. The congressional delegation is always pretty well balanced, either 4-4 or 5-3 every election since 2000. The state House and state Senate are very close. Minnesota doesn't register voters by party, but a company whose business it is to estimate party breakdowns calculates that Minnesota is one-third Democrat, one-third Republican and one-third independent or minor parties. This may be an oversimplification, but the Twin Cities and their suburbs (at least the first two "rings") are terrible, the rest of the state is fine. The first part of that sentence is definitely true, anyway.

When it comes to statewide elections, the GOP sometimes comes close -- but never wins. Trump won every single county in Minnesota except 4 in the Twin Cities area, 3 in the Arrowhead Region, and the counties containing Rochester and Moorhead. He still lost by 4 points, which isn't too bad a showing for a Republican in the Great White (75% and dropping) North. But the last time a Republican presidential candidate won in Minnesota was back in 1972 -- 53 years ago. There's usually some hope but it's always false hope.

It's no different in other statewide elections. From 2008 to 2024 there were 23 non-presidential statewide elections in Minnesota, for offices ranging from Governor and U.S. Senator to Auditor, Attorney General and Secretary of State. Only one candidate (Amy Klobuchar) has ever exceeded 55% of the vote during those years, and she's done that 3 times. The other 20 elections were close. Democrats won all 20 of them.

Photo credit: house.mn.gov

Speaking of "pipe dreams". . . one explanation for some of the previously close outcomes is -- or was -- the presence of doper parties on the ballot. The "Grassroots-Legalize Cannabis" party and the "Legal Marijuana Now!" party are both recognized political entities in Minnesota, but they ceased fielding candidates after 2022. That's because they no longer have any reason to do so; in 2023 the Democrat legislature passed a very lenient law which legalizes cannabis for any type of use, not just medicinal. The fact that the doper parties are now obsolete helps Democrats, because these parties were regularly siphoning off thousands of left-wing votes in major elections.

Photo credit: yahoo.com

This foregone conclusion of an election might be spiced up a bit if ex-sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya were to enter the race on the GOP side. Tafoya was a long-time sideline reporter for NFL games, and during her career she was employed by several networks including CBS, ESPN and NBC. She retired from that profession in January, 2022; the last game she worked was Super Bowl LVI.

Tafoya, a self-described "pro-choice conservative with Libertarian leanings", is now a political commentator, doing podcasts from her home in the suburban Twin Cities area. She has been rumored as a potential candidate for the Minnesota Senate seat, but has not yet made any move towards running. The main challengers to White for the GOP nod are a pair of retired Navy veterans, Adam Schwarze and Tom Weiler, neither of whom have any political experience -- which isn't necessarily a bad thing -- but they have no name-recognition (or sufficient funding, or a prayer of winning) either.

Photo credit: Zach Wendling/Nebraska Examiner

Democrat-in-disguise Dan Osborn is the Great "Independent" Hope for the left in the state of Nebraska. Fresh off of a defeat in the 2024 Senate election against incumbent GOP squish Deb Fischer in which he came closer than some expected, Osborn is rested and ready to give it another go in 2026. Osborn took all of the Democrat money he could get in 2024, but concealed his true political identity by refusing to accept the Democrat party label which is repugnant in the Cornhusker State outside of Omaha and Lincoln. Not even including all of the supposedly-independent liberal cashflow coming from outside the state, Osborn's fundraising dwarfed that of Fischer. Numerous polls showed a close race in 2024, and some even had Osborn prevailing by a small amount. Osborn won the two big liberal cities and lost everywhere else; the final outcome was a 6.7% victory for the Republican. Only one or two forecasters actually got it right; the other polls (nearly all of which were paid for by Osborn's campaign) were nothing but wishful thinking, propaganda and hot air.

Osborn's opponent in 2026 will be Nebraska's other squishy moderate Senator, Pete Ricketts. Ricketts, the former two-term Governor of Nebraska, was appointed in January, 2023 to fill the Senate vacancy caused by the resignation of rabid Trump-hating Republican Ben Sasse. Ricketts then easily won the 2024 special election to fill the remainder of Sasse's unexpired term.

That effortless win came against a Democrat, and defeating any Democrat statewide is a slam dunk in Nebraska these days. In 2024 the national party kept its support of Osborn a secret until the final days of the campaign. National Rats are now out of the closet, and have proudly endorsed the faux independent for 2026. They have yet to support Osborn with the big money which will enable him to easily outspend Ricketts (but that will come). For his part, Osborn is careful to appear in flannel shirts, holding a hunting rifle if possible, and making sure to stress that he was once a member of Organized Labor. So unlike most Democrat "working-class hero" wannabes, this guy really did once-upon-a-time work for a living before becoming a politician.

Just like in 2024, the polls purport to indicate a close race. Just like in 2024, those biased polls are very likely to be wrong when the votes are counted. But Democrats have all the money in the world, as they have conclusively shown in recent years, so why not spend it -- even on an "independent", even in a normally unwinnable state?

Because 2026 just might not be a normal election year.

Tags:

2026 Senate Louisiana Alaska Kentucky Minnesota Nebraska Virginia