Photo credit: AP Photo/Butch Dill

A Democrat-run outlier poll is good news for.... Republicans?

Maybe not. This is likely to be just a case of setting up the bowling pin in order to knock it down later.

Every time a poll comes out, particularly one which doesn't support our worldview, every wishful thinker suddenly turns into an instant Ph.D in Mathematics and scrutinizes the "internals" under a microscope; people pretend that they have any clue about sampling methodology, sample sizes, margins of error, etc. This poll will be spared that level of scrutiny because it tells us what we so desperately want to hear, therefore it's OK not to look that gift horse too closely in the mouth.

For unfriendly polls we hear the same old boilerplate drivel from the expert analysts:

• "Polls are rigged!"
• "This company once published a poll which turned out to be wrong -- therefore this one is wrong too!"
• "Pollsters always oversample Democrats! (as if they know what 'oversample' means)
• "Polls are published by the media in order to shape public opinion instead of reflecting public opinion!"

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The cowards at the RNC, in full agreement with the GOP "leadership" as provided by wimps such as Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, will -- at most -- run some dull-as-dishwater ads that touch upon inflation and other ways in which Democrats have crashed the economy. The economy, and taxes, are the only issues they'll have the courage to address.

What they will never do is run ads promoting support for the Second Amendment, the rights of the unborn, or any other issue for which they fear backlash from the Democrat media. They certainly will not touch with a 10-foot pole the issue of grooming of young schoolchildren by teachers and other liberal pedophiles. If their position could possibly be labeled as "controversial", the RNC trembles with terror then drops the subject.

The out-of-touch country club elites who are in control of the GOP establishment -- and who control the funding of candidates -- clearly feel that the way to inspire the base of the Republican party is to run, shrieking hysterically, to the left and capitulate to everything Democrats want to do, no matter how depraved or degenerate. Except maybe the Republicans won't raise taxes as much as Democrats would. So, conservatives.... has Mitch's tepid approach got you all excited and inspired to get out and vote in November?

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And moved 2 races towards the Democrats. Five of the 8 changes in ratings are in the state of California, where GOP incumbent Ken Calvert is in trouble in his reconfigured district, but incumbents Young Kim and Michelle Steel are now believed to be somewhat more likely to win than they previously were.

The most ludicrous item on the chart is the change of Pennsylvania CD-12 from "Solid D" to "Likely D". The district contains the city of Pittsburgh and some of its more unfortunate suburbs. In the Democrat primary race, a radical AOC-wannabe "squad" member narrowly defeated a more common-sense (by Democrat standards, anyway) candidate. Combined with the fact that the Republican nominee has the same name as the outgoing Democrat incumbent, this may cause numerous voters in this heavily-Democrat district to leave the liberal plantation, whether accidentally or on purpose, and that has the leftists at the Cook Political Report slightly concerned. It will be an impressive accomplishment if the Republican only loses by 10 points or so.

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Recap: excellent results for conservatives from House races in Colorado (Lauren Boebert) and Illinois (Mary Miller over Squish Davis), but not as good elsewhere. Several incumbent liberal cowards in Oklahoma and Utah easily won their Republican primaries and are all but guaranteed re-election to the House in November. The time to oust these traitors is in the primaries, but the voters weren't up to the task.

Aside from Boebert's smashing win, things didn't go well in Colorado -- a member of the GOPe country-club elite won the Senate primary, and there were shenanigans galore in the important Secretary of State Republican primary which was won by what is effectively a liberal Democrat or, as the linked article puts it, a "Zuckerberg stooge" who disguised herself as a Republican and didn't even bother to do that very well. Yet she won the primary.

Photo credit: Tara for Alaska

For those who haven't been following the soap opera in the Rigged Choice Voting state of Alaska, the Democrat-RINO coalition has conceded that some true Republican (probably Sarah Palin) will win the August special election to fill the House seat of the late Don Young. However they are determined to oust Palin in the regular election in November.

Sweeney, the so-called "moderate", will, the RINOs hope, split the Republican vote sufficiently so that either a Democrat will win or Sweeney herself will win on the second ballot (which is a provision of Rigged Choice Voting when no candidate reaches 50% on the first counting of votes) after the Democrat is eliminated and the vast majority of the Democrat's votes are allocated to Sweeney. Alternatively, Sweeney could be eliminated and nearly all of her votes would then be allocated to the Democrat. In either case it's a possible win for liberals of both parties.

Photo credit: Allan Fung For Congress

It's been exactly 30 years since a Republican won a House seat in Rhode Island, so this is one instance where conservatives shouldn't complain about the squishiness of a candidate. No conservative is going to win in this D+9 district, period. Even someone who is maybe only 40% Republican and 60% Democrat is a solid improvement over the status quo in Rhode Island, and really does represent the best we can do.

It's different when RINO-type candidates are running in states like Texas or Florida, where RINOs should never get anywhere near the nomination unless they're running for the worthless Republican primary win in some 90% Democrat ghetto district, in which case nobody cares.

Photo credit: AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

The key words of this liberal-media biased headline (and the purpose of the article) are "warning for Dems". The headline leaves out the part of the story where those voters who switched to the GOP were substantially offset by the 600,000+ others who moved in the oppposite direction. So the net gain is well under 1 million, and that includes a ton of Democrat voters who switched for the sole purpose of infiltrating and sabotaging Republican primary elections.

In states such as Texas, Georgia and Ohio (and lots of others) which do not even register voters by party, the act of "switching" parties merely means that a voter in 2022 chose to vote in a different party's primary than the one in which he voted in 2020. In most cases little effort or no effort at all is required, and the decision hardly always represents some deep philosophical change on the part of the voter -- it's just a strategic ploy, or a temporary change based on a desire to vote in a more hotly contested primary election.

Photo credit: Natalie Behring

The media fervently wishes that this ruling, which deprives not one "woman or pregnant person" from their so-called right to an abortion on demand, will hurt Republicans in November and they may well be correct.

While it's true that most of the increased turnout spurred by this ruling will likely be in House districts that are already bound to vote for radical leftists, additional Democrat and RINO pro-abortionist voters in those ghetto districts and suburban soccer mommy districts is obviously not going to be beneficial to Republican chances in statewide races or in marginal House districts.

Those who claim this ruling will have NO impact on Democrat and RINO turnout in November are probably the same fools who believed that 2020 would be a GOP landslide because President Trump had all the enthusiasm on his side and Basement Biden had none whatsoever. The fact is that being rabidly against someone (liberal hatred of Trump in 2018 and 2020) or something (liberal hatred of an anti-abortionist Supreme Court ruling in 2022) is a great motivator to get to the polls, often much more so than the impulse to vote for something.

Prediction (related to the story below this one): in case RINO Don Coram can fraud his way to a Republican primary victory over Lauren Boebert next Tuesday with massive Democrat support, the media has already written the stories which will gleefully claim that "Boebert was defeated by liberal voters who were enraged by the Supreme Court decision, and this is just the first evidence that Democrats will massively increase their House and Senate majorities in November!"

Unorganized "Democrat voters" thought of this all by themselves, eh? How clever of them. The fact that the media controllers are constantly reporting this makes it blatantly obvious that they are encouraging it. If the time ever comes when the GOP endorses a "moderate" Democrat challenger to some left wing nutbucket like AOC, I doubt that we'll be able to count on the media controllers similarly endorsing THAT.

We'll find out on Tuesday just how effective this particular Democrat (and media-endorsed) dirty trick was. The chance that it will succeed is not insignificant, but if it fails, how long will it take for Boebert's RINO opponent, Don Coram, to announce his support for the Democrat in the general election? It would only be logical for Coram to support the party that tried to help him so much in the primary; the least he could do is return the favor.

If you think Boebert can't possibly lose, keep in mind that this isn't Wyoming, nor is it like MTG's heavily-Republican district in Georgia either. Boebert's a prime target and her district is a somewhat marginal one with lots of Democrats and RINOs who hate Boebert every bit as much or more than conservatives hate Liz Cheney. Unlike Wyoming, conservatives do not outnumber the sum of Democrats + RINOs here, and Democrats have made this primary a holy crusade. Boebert got only 51% in November of 2020.

Photo credit: Michael Cassidy for Congress

The incumbent squish, Michael Guest, cravenly voted to allow the creation of the "January 6th Committee" kangaroo court. Otherwise he's just been a backbencher who has had no significant impact on anything. His cowardice should not go unpunished, but it will if just a few crossover Democrats help him out in Tuesday's Republican runoff because the top two candidates were separated by less than one percentage point in the primary.

The Mississippi GOP establishment is well-known for its hatred of conservatives (remember Thad Cochran's dirty campaign vs. Chris McDaniel from a few years back?) and even now the state party chairman is actively encouraging Democrats to invade the Republican runoff election and save the more liberal candidate. The Democrat nominee in this district doesn't stand a chance in November, so Tuesday will effectively determine who occupies this House seat in 2023-24.

Photo credit: AP Photo/Chris Seward

Keep your eye on this one. Republicans barely won the 2020 Senate race here even after the Democrat candidate was engulfed in scandal (which the liberal media downplayed, of course). This time around the candidate is an ultra-liberal black female who is extremely well-funded; having failed in 2020 to purchase a Senate seat in South Carolina for some other empty (black) suit despite record-setting spending, the Democrats are trying again and have a significant probablity of success. Budd, running way behind in the cash department, needs to run a solid campaign and avoid being intimidated by the media into pulling any punches against his Marxist opponent.

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Same song, different verse: "Cheney's campaign has mailed instructions to Wyoming Democrats on how to change their party affiliation to vote for the incumbent congresswoman." Only morons still think that closed primaries -- like they have in Wyoming -- mean that only true members of a party can vote. Whether open or closed, it is an extremely simple matter for Democrats to cross over and sabotage Republican primaries.

Just like other supposedly legal (except where it's not) Democrat dirty tricks such as "ballot harvesting", it's hardly sufficient to note that "Republicans could do the same thing Democrats are doing", because... they don't. Furthermore, the RINO establishment is perfectly content to allow Democrats to assist in the selection of Republican nominees, as long as the Democrats are selecting the more liberal candidate. We'll see clear evidence of that next week in Illinois (conservative Mary Miller vs. RINO Rodney Davis) and Colorado (conservative Lauren Boebert vs. RINO Don Coram).

In Virginia's CD-7, another Hispanic female Republican candidate, Yesli Vega, won a primary and stands a decent chance of taking out the incumbent liberal Democrat in November. Incumbent liberal Abigail "Deep State" Spanberger is a former CIA operative who only prevailed in 2020 due to the fortuitous late-night "discovery" of thousands of suspicious votes on a previously unnoticed flash drive.

Through 2020, the bad parts of the 7th District were areas in the formerly-nice Richmond suburbs, Chesterfield and Henrico Counties (whatever good parts of Chesterfield still exist were mainly outside this district). Giddy Republicans observe that those areas have been removed in redistricting, and therefore they falsely conclude that this makes the entire 7th District more amenble to the GOP. In fact, Chesterfield and Henrico have been replaced by an even worse portion of rapidly deteriorating Prince William County. In 2020 the district was R+3 and now it is D+1 -- still very winnable for Republicans but a slightly more difficult task now than it was two years ago, even if the votes are counted honestly.

Phony "independent" but actual liberal Democrat Al Gross fared so badly in the June 11 special primary election to replace the late Don Young in Congress, that -- even though he advanced to the general election -- he has decided to drop out of the race with the expectation that he will be replaced on the ballot with fifth-place finisher "Republican" Tara Sweeney in an effort to further fracture the Republican side of the ballot. The conservative vote is already split between Palin and Begich.

Sweeney is a RINO whose puppet strings are visibly attached to RINO Senator Lisa Murkowski and other Democrats. From the article: "The parallels to the circumstances that kept Murkowski in office [in 2010] and conspiring to install Sweeney are eerie." Thanks to Rigged Choice Voting, the Democrat/RINO plan here is that either the Democrat or the RINO will win because the two conservatives will split the vote and -- very importantly -- those who vote for either Palin or Begich as their first choice will likely not vote for the other conservative candidate as their #2 choice, which will allow one of the two liberal candidates to prevail.

This was the plan all along, but Gross blew it by failing to get anyone but the lowest-info voters to select him. So now Plan B is to pull a "Torricelli": where liberals remove the failed candidate from the ballot and try to illegally replace him with someone who is likely to perform better.

Photo credit: Zeldin For New York

And every important sign says it won't. Although the article makes clear why the state of New York is in such deplorable shape and why the good people are continuing to leave in droves, the idea that a Republican could take over in Albany in 2023 is just so much baseless "hopium". The current radical leftist Governor will win by at least 15-20 points in November, and if that number is closer to 15 than 20 (or more) it will be an upset.

The only reason that ultra-liberal Republicans such as Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan and Phil Scott occasionally get elected Governor in ultra-liberal states such as Massachusetts, Maryland and Vermont is because Democrats sometimes prefer having a Republican scapegoat appear to be in charge. Veto-proof liberal majorities in the state House and Senate render the RINO Gov completely impotent legislatively, and the RINO (being ultra-liberal) rarely opposes whatever the Democrats do anyway. Then when things go off the rails thanks to the legislature's policies, the media and other Democrats have a handy target on which to deflect the blame instead of placing that blame where it rightfully belongs.