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The leftists at 538 are only just now realizing that Democrats are favored to keep the Senate? Oz is toast in PA and always was, so that's minus-1 for the GOP and the loss is not likely to be offset with a Walker victory in Georgia which was supposed to be (and may still be) the most likely Republican pickup. But "most likely" still doesn't mean "likely" whatsoever. Assuming all other incumbents win too and open seats are held, that means a 51-49 Senate with the GOP on the short end.

If any other seats flip, the reality is that it's much more likely to be R to D than D to R. Wisconsin, North Carolina and maybe even Ohio are not slam dunk retentions for Republicans. Things are not 100% safe even in Utah (!) or Missouri depending on who wins that state's primary next week, however sanity is still favored though not guaranteed to prevail in both of those states in the end.

Aside from Georgia, Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada are the only plausible flips in the good direction; anyone thinking of adding New Hampshire, Colorado, etc. to the list can dream on. But don't forget Alaska, where Tshibaka (R) beating Murkowski (RINO) -- if that actually happens -- should count as a Republican pickup even though it technically isn't.

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Senate 2022 Democrats retain control Pennsylvania Georgia

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Unlike the plethora of generic polls which bounce all over the place yet purport to conclusively identify which party Americans prefer for Congress, this "bipartisan" poll focuses solely on 56 U.S. House battleground districts which are likely to have close elections in November. While it's true that all 435 seats in the House are up for election in November, very few of those 435 are actually competitive and these 56 are judged to be the primary ones which could go either way.

Because the poll was sponsored by AARP (don't worry: it's still a reasonably fair poll despite the left-wing politics of the sponsor), they oversampled voters 50 years of age and over. The results show a 4-point lead for Republicans in these key districts. The oversampling in this case means that 61% of respondents were age 50 or older, which is out of line with the 2020 election's age breakdown -- but not by all that much.

In 2020, 60% of the electorate was age 45 (not 50) or older, but it's possible that if the AARP poll's sample had matched 2020 the results would be even better for the GOP, if voters in their 40's were the ones undersampled here. Voters who are 40+ have generally achieved the age of intellectual and emotional adulthood ("40 is the new 20") and tend to have jobs, families and other real-world responsibilities, more so than voters under 40. As such, these voters likely swing more to the right than the left and therefore would lead to a greater margin for Republicans in this particular poll.

Schmitt is a decent candidate but Greitens, despite his alleged "baggage", would be better if for no other reason than seeing him drive the wimps in his own party (like pussy-boi Caleb Rowden) crazy.

Perhaps the real story in Missouri at the moment is the negative campaigns being waged by the two hopeless Democrats, because they are going negative on each other which is quite the exception in Democrat primaries for statewide offices in 2022. The DNC generally keeps a tight rein on their candidates' ads, making sure they only attack Republicans -- including ones not even on the ballot (Trump) -- and also making sure they do nothing to harm each other.

Another factor which mitigates against Democrat intra-party catfights is how few of their statewide primaries are even competitive this year. The Rat party establishment has cleared the field for their chosen ones almost everywhere, therefore there's no other candidate worthy of attacking; the primary is just a formality. The lack of competition also frees up Democrat voters to cross over and sabotage highly competitive GOP primaries -- which has happened in numerous states -- but it never happens the other way around, at least not this year.

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A squishy GOP establishment reporter whistles past the graveyard. She enthusiastically cites a recent "bipartisan" poll showing Dr. Oz losing by "only" 6 points to Uncle Festerman although another recent liberal Democrat poll shows Oz being beaten by 9 points.

One of the most idiotic claims which has been made by the liberal GOP puppetmasters on behalf of "Electable Oz" is that he will do a better job of gaining women's votes than a normal Republican candidate would, due to their familiarity with him and his telegenic persona. Wrong. The more reputable of the two polls mentioned above has Oz down by 14 points among female voters, and anyone who believes that gap will significantly narrow over the next few months is delusional.

Oz was annointed by the establishment, which would have been equally happy with McCormick or anyone other than Barnette, because he's a celebrity (so what?); is wealthy enough to self-fund his campaign (then why does Fetterman have 5x Oz' amount of campaign cash and 100x the TV ads?); will pull in the brain-dead suburban soccer mommy vote and the votes of other insane liberal white women (already debunked); and he'll still do well with the conservative base of the GOP (LOL!).

Trump won PA, probably twice, by appealing to the working-class, blue-collar faction of the Democrat party while still holding nearly all of the Republicans' conservative base. Oz is obviously going to underperform on both counts.

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If the usually-conservative Wisconsin Senator is calculating that the number of votes he might gain from Organized Faggotry in November will exceed the number of votes he will lose from taking this stance, he is certain to be wrong. It's more a case of Johnson being terrified of media backlash if he dares to support the natural definition of marriage.

Johnson is facing a very tough re-election fight which he is looking increasingly less likely to win, and (combined with the probable adverse outcome of the Governor election in his state after the GOP nominates the weaker Trump-endorsed candidate, Michaels) puts Wisconsin right up there with Pennsylvania and Georgia as far as upcoming major disappointments we could be seeing in statewide elections in November.

Arizona has a solid chance to make this list after two good conservatives win their primaries then get "Mastriano-ed"-- that's what it's called when the GOP establishment and big-$$$ donors, having failed to rig the primary in their favor, run shrieking hysterically to the left and support the Democrats in the general election.

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Not to temper the excitement about this historic development, but in the Old Confederacy and border states like Kentucky, voter registration is very often a lagging indicator and not necessarily a leading indicator. Kentucky, like most of the South, started accelerating to the right at the ballot box during the Gingrich Revolution of the mid-1990s but it has taken years, even decades, for party registration to catch up.

Most southern states don't even have party registration, but ones which do (Louisiana and Oklahoma for example) have been showing the same thing as Kentucky for years: they were voting for Republicans -- first nationally, then statewide, then locally -- even when voter registration was still overwhelmingly Democrat.

To illustrate how much this "news" lags behind reality, consider that Kentucky has already been voting reliably Republican for President since 1980 (with the exception of Perot handing a couple of narrow wins to Clinton); they began totally voting GOP for Senate in the early 1990s; they first elected Republicans to lower statewide offices in 2003 and currently have nothing but Republicans holding those offices; their state Senate flipped from D to R as of 2000 but the state House only flipped as of 2016. That's a normal progression for a Southern state, and the fact that voter registration stats are finally catching up really doesn't mean a whole lot though it is nice to see.

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A conservative-hating website pushes a biased left-wing online (LOL) poll which shows conservatives losing in Alaska. The clumsy methodology of the poll notwithstanding, the outcome which the haters are hoping for is not impossible or even unlikely.

Even though Al Gross flamed out -- or perhaps because he did, since his withdrawal removes the split in the liberal vote -- the heavily-fractured Republican side of the special election ballot (Palin vs. Begich) will remain fractured to a sufficient degree to allow the lone remaining Democrat to advance to the "second ballot" in the Rigged Choice Voting (RCV) scheme which Alaska has adopted. That being the case, if Begich is eliminated his votes will be re-allocated to a very large extent to the Democrat instead of going to Palin. Therefore the Democrat-media focus for the next month will be on making Begich more unpopular so that he finishes no higher than third place on the first ballot.

On the Senate side in November, unless Kelly Tshibaka can get to 50% and win on the first ballot, the same thing will happen -- the votes of the eliminated candidates will be re-allocated far more toward liberal incumbent Lisa Murkowski and she will win re-election even though the vast majority of her own party rightfully despises her. At this point liberals will declare Rigged Choice Voting a resounding success, having handed them a pair of victories which would have been highly unlikely under a normal (non-rigged) electoral system. Look for RCV to become much more widespread after 2022 as Democrats and other liberals push for it everywhere.

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A Democrat-run outlier poll is good news for.... Republicans?

Maybe not. This is likely to be just a case of setting up the bowling pin in order to knock it down later.

Every time a poll comes out, particularly one which doesn't support our worldview, every wishful thinker suddenly turns into an instant Ph.D in Mathematics and scrutinizes the "internals" under a microscope; people pretend that they have any clue about sampling methodology, sample sizes, margins of error, etc. This poll will be spared that level of scrutiny because it tells us what we so desperately want to hear, therefore it's OK not to look that gift horse too closely in the mouth.

For unfriendly polls we hear the same old boilerplate drivel from the expert analysts:

• "Polls are rigged!"
• "This company once published a poll which turned out to be wrong -- therefore this one is wrong too!"
• "Pollsters always oversample Democrats! (as if they know what 'oversample' means)
• "Polls are published by the media in order to shape public opinion instead of reflecting public opinion!"

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The cowards at the RNC, in full agreement with the GOP "leadership" as provided by wimps such as Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy, will -- at most -- run some dull-as-dishwater ads that touch upon inflation and other ways in which Democrats have crashed the economy. The economy, and taxes, are the only issues they'll have the courage to address.

What they will never do is run ads promoting support for the Second Amendment, the rights of the unborn, or any other issue for which they fear backlash from the Democrat media. They certainly will not touch with a 10-foot pole the issue of grooming of young schoolchildren by teachers and other liberal pedophiles. If their position could possibly be labeled as "controversial", the RNC trembles with terror then drops the subject.

The out-of-touch country club elites who are in control of the GOP establishment -- and who control the funding of candidates -- clearly feel that the way to inspire the base of the Republican party is to run, shrieking hysterically, to the left and capitulate to everything Democrats want to do, no matter how depraved or degenerate. Except maybe the Republicans won't raise taxes as much as Democrats would. So, conservatives.... has Mitch's tepid approach got you all excited and inspired to get out and vote in November?

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And moved 2 races towards the Democrats. Five of the 8 changes in ratings are in the state of California, where GOP incumbent Ken Calvert is in trouble in his reconfigured district, but incumbents Young Kim and Michelle Steel are now believed to be somewhat more likely to win than they previously were.

The most ludicrous item on the chart is the change of Pennsylvania CD-12 from "Solid D" to "Likely D". The district contains the city of Pittsburgh and some of its more unfortunate suburbs. In the Democrat primary race, a radical AOC-wannabe "squad" member narrowly defeated a more common-sense (by Democrat standards, anyway) candidate. Combined with the fact that the Republican nominee has the same name as the outgoing Democrat incumbent, this may cause numerous voters in this heavily-Democrat district to leave the liberal plantation, whether accidentally or on purpose, and that has the leftists at the Cook Political Report slightly concerned. It will be an impressive accomplishment if the Republican only loses by 10 points or so.

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Recap: excellent results for conservatives from House races in Colorado (Lauren Boebert) and Illinois (Mary Miller over Squish Davis), but not as good elsewhere. Several incumbent liberal cowards in Oklahoma and Utah easily won their Republican primaries and are all but guaranteed re-election to the House in November. The time to oust these traitors is in the primaries, but the voters weren't up to the task.

Aside from Boebert's smashing win, things didn't go well in Colorado -- a member of the GOPe country-club elite won the Senate primary, and there were shenanigans galore in the important Secretary of State Republican primary which was won by what is effectively a liberal Democrat or, as the linked article puts it, a "Zuckerberg stooge" who disguised herself as a Republican and didn't even bother to do that very well. Yet she won the primary.

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For those who haven't been following the soap opera in the Rigged Choice Voting state of Alaska, the Democrat-RINO coalition has conceded that some true Republican (probably Sarah Palin) will win the August special election to fill the House seat of the late Don Young. However they are determined to oust Palin in the regular election in November.

Sweeney, the so-called "moderate", will, the RINOs hope, split the Republican vote sufficiently so that either a Democrat will win or Sweeney herself will win on the second ballot (which is a provision of Rigged Choice Voting when no candidate reaches 50% on the first counting of votes) after the Democrat is eliminated and the vast majority of the Democrat's votes are allocated to Sweeney. Alternatively, Sweeney could be eliminated and nearly all of her votes would then be allocated to the Democrat. In either case it's a possible win for liberals of both parties.

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It's been exactly 30 years since a Republican won a House seat in Rhode Island, so this is one instance where conservatives shouldn't complain about the squishiness of a candidate. No conservative is going to win in this D+9 district, period. Even someone who is maybe only 40% Republican and 60% Democrat is a solid improvement over the status quo in Rhode Island, and really does represent the best we can do.

It's different when RINO-type candidates are running in states like Texas or Florida, where RINOs should never get anywhere near the nomination unless they're running for the worthless Republican primary win in some 90% Democrat ghetto district, in which case nobody cares.

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The key words of this liberal-media biased headline (and the purpose of the article) are "warning for Dems". The headline leaves out the part of the story where those voters who switched to the GOP were substantially offset by the 600,000+ others who moved in the oppposite direction. So the net gain is well under 1 million, and that includes a ton of Democrat voters who switched for the sole purpose of infiltrating and sabotaging Republican primary elections.

In states such as Texas, Georgia and Ohio (and lots of others) which do not even register voters by party, the act of "switching" parties merely means that a voter in 2022 chose to vote in a different party's primary than the one in which he voted in 2020. In most cases little effort or no effort at all is required, and the decision hardly always represents some deep philosophical change on the part of the voter -- it's just a strategic ploy, or a temporary change based on a desire to vote in a more hotly contested primary election.

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The media fervently wishes that this ruling, which deprives not one "woman or pregnant person" from their so-called right to an abortion on demand, will hurt Republicans in November and they may well be correct.

While it's true that most of the increased turnout spurred by this ruling will likely be in House districts that are already bound to vote for radical leftists, additional Democrat and RINO pro-abortionist voters in those ghetto districts and suburban soccer mommy districts is obviously not going to be beneficial to Republican chances in statewide races or in marginal House districts.

Those who claim this ruling will have NO impact on Democrat and RINO turnout in November are probably the same fools who believed that 2020 would be a GOP landslide because President Trump had all the enthusiasm on his side and Basement Biden had none whatsoever. The fact is that being rabidly against someone (liberal hatred of Trump in 2018 and 2020) or something (liberal hatred of an anti-abortionist Supreme Court ruling in 2022) is a great motivator to get to the polls, often much more so than the impulse to vote for something.

Prediction (related to the story below this one): in case RINO Don Coram can fraud his way to a Republican primary victory over Lauren Boebert next Tuesday with massive Democrat support, the media has already written the stories which will gleefully claim that "Boebert was defeated by liberal voters who were enraged by the Supreme Court decision, and this is just the first evidence that Democrats will massively increase their House and Senate majorities in November!"